TFM Midday Update 8-4-20

CORN

  • September down 0.055 @ 3.12, December down 0.0525 @ 3.2325, March down 0.055 @ 3.3475
  • Crop conditions reported yesterday were steady with last week @ 72% G/EX, up 9% from the 10-year average
  • Conditions improved in IL, NE, MN and KS but declined in IA due to lack of moisture in the western half of the state
  • Lack of threatening near-term forecasts
  • Yield projections are creeping higher, StoneX (formerly FCStone) is expecting yield to come in @ 182.4bpa
  • December futures are testing contract lows @ 3.22
  • Oversold stochastics

SOYBEANS

  • August down 0.095 @ 8.88, September down 0.0975 @ 8.8325, November down 0.105 @ 8.855
  • Crop conditions reported yesterday were up 1% @ 73% G/EX, up 1% from expectations and 12% from the 10-year average
  • Conditions improved in ND and IN but declined in IA
  • StoneX is expecting yield to come in @ 54.2bpa which could push ending stocks to the 2nd highest ever @ 791mbu
  • June crush @ 5.91mbu was a new record for the month
  • November beans have fallen back below the 10 and 20-day moving average support levels
  • Nearby support comes in at the 50-day moving average level @ 8.81

WHEAT

  • December CHI down 0.08 @ 5.13, December KC down 0.045 @ 4.37, December MPLS down 0.03 @ 5.1725
  • Spring wheat conditions reported yesterday improved by 3% to 73% and harvest is seen @ 5% complete
  • Expectations for a large Russian crop are overwhelming support from smaller Romanian and French crops
  • US dollar is stabilizing, but couldn’t punch through the 10-day moving average resistance earlier in the session
  • CHI futures are testing the 50-day moving average and Bollinger Band support levels
  • KC and MPLS futures are sinking to new contract lows

CATTLE

  • August lives down 0.37 @ 102.65, October lives down 0.50 @ 107.77, December lives down 0.27 @ 111.52
  • August feeders down 0.05 @ 144.82, September feeders down 0.17 @ 146.90
  • Cash wires were quiet yesterday, beef prices are trending higher
  • Slaughter pace lately has been steady or a bit lower than the same time last year
  • October lives are still overbought according to stochastics

HOGS

  • August up 0.40 @ 50.27, October up 0.95 @ 49.35, December up 0.50 @ 50.57
  • Cash Index seems to have turned lower, pork values are choppy
  • Extremely heavy pork production is keeping sellers active
  • Today’s bounce looks mostly technical in nature
  • October hogs are still trading within their recent range and have not tested the 10 and 20-day moving aveage resistance area

Author

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Sam Seid

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