TFM Midday Update 8-4-20

CORN

September down 0.055 @ 3.12, December down 0.0525 @ 3.2325, March down 0.055 @ 3.3475
Crop conditions reported yesterday were steady with last week @ 72% G/EX, up 9% from the 10-year average
Conditions improved in IL, NE, MN and KS but declined in IA due to lack of moisture in the western half of the state
Lack of threatening near-term forecasts
Yield projections are creeping higher, StoneX (formerly FCStone) is expecting yield to come in @ 182.4bpa
December futures are testing contract lows @ 3.22
Oversold stochastics

August down 0.095 @ 8.88, September down 0.0975 @ 8.8325, November down 0.105 @ 8.855
Crop conditions reported yesterday were up 1% @ 73% G/EX, up 1% from expectations and 12% from the 10-year average
Conditions improved in ND and IN but declined in IA
StoneX is expecting yield to come in @ 54.2bpa which could push ending stocks to the 2nd highest ever @ 791mbu
June crush @ 5.91mbu was a new record for the month
November beans have fallen back below the 10 and 20-day moving average support levels
Nearby support comes in at the 50-day moving average level @ 8.81

December CHI down 0.08 @ 5.13, December KC down 0.045 @ 4.37, December MPLS down 0.03 @ 5.1725
Spring wheat conditions reported yesterday improved by 3% to 73% and harvest is seen @ 5% complete
Expectations for a large Russian crop are overwhelming support from smaller Romanian and French crops
US dollar is stabilizing, but couldn’t punch through the 10-day moving average resistance earlier in the session
CHI futures are testing the 50-day moving average and Bollinger Band support levels
KC and MPLS futures are sinking to new contract lows

August lives down 0.37 @ 102.65, October lives down 0.50 @ 107.77, December lives down 0.27 @ 111.52
August feeders down 0.05 @ 144.82, September feeders down 0.17 @ 146.90
Cash wires were quiet yesterday, beef prices are trending higher
Slaughter pace lately has been steady or a bit lower than the same time last year
October lives are still overbought according to stochastics

August up 0.40 @ 50.27, October up 0.95 @ 49.35, December up 0.50 @ 50.57
Cash Index seems to have turned lower, pork values are choppy
Extremely heavy pork production is keeping sellers active
Today’s bounce looks mostly technical in nature
October hogs are still trading within their recent range and have not tested the 10 and 20-day moving aveage resistance area

Bryan Doherty