TFM Midday Update 8-4-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

CORN

Sep corn up 11 @ 6.03
Corn is trading higher this morning as hot and dry weather in the western Plains and as far North as South Dakota remains a concern
Rain is expected east of Illinois with heavier amounts in Ohio and Kentucky, while the western Corn Belt is forecast to be dry over the next two weeks
Corn exports were decent at 2.3 mb for 21/22, down 62% from the previous week but up 31% from the prior 4-week average
Sales for 22/23 were 10.1 mb, with main destinations being Mexico, unknown destinations, and El Salvador

Sep soybeans up 51 @ 14.55
Soybeans are higher as hot and dry conditions for the western Corn Belt pose a threat to yields and eventually the carryout
Open interest has been increasing with new shorts in the market and appear to be getting squeezed a bit today
Bean oil is not getting as much support as crude is lower and Malaysian palm oil inventories at the end of June have risen to the highest levels in 8 months as production increases
For 21/22 soybeans saw net cancellations again of 0.4 mb, down 81% from the previous week and 90% from the prior 4-week average, and sales for 22/23 were 15.1 mb

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Sep wheat up 24 @ 7.88, Sep KC up 28 @ 8.63, & Sep MNPLS up 22 @ 8.98
Wheat is likely getting some support to move higher from the other grains today, but Ukrainian officials are cautious about moving more grain shipments, and ship movements are so far much slower than anticipated
Ukraine is attempting to harvest its winter wheat crop while also having their fields attacked by Russia, so the global outlook for wheat supplied into 22/23 remains worrisome
Net export sales for wheat increased 9.2 mb for 22/23, but last week’s export shipments of 10.6 mb were below the 16.3 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate

Aug LC down 0.350 @ 137.550 & Aug FC down 1.400 @ 177.950
Live and feeder cattle are lower today as grains show strength and export sales were low
Cash trade is higher with some business in Texas being done at 15.50 to 136, 0.50 to a dollar higher than last week, and Northern live trade being reported at 140 and dressed between 225 and 230
Net export sales of beef for 2022 were 12,000 mt and down 52% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average, and for 2023 18,500 mt, down 9% from last week
Choice cuts down 0.52 and select down 0.25
Cattle slaughter projected at 125K
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 8/3: down 0.36 @ 174.04

Aug hogs up 0.250 @ 121.025 & Aug pork cutout down 0.375 @ 126.100
Hogs were lower on the open but have rallied into positive territory after another big jump in cash, but a cutout which fell by 5.53
August futures are at about a 6-dollar discount for the rolling 5-day cash average and have more room to the upside as first notice nears
Pork export sales were good at 31,000 mt for 2022, up 43% from last week and 35% from the prior 4-week average with main increases for China, Mexico, and Japan
National Direct Afternoon report rose 9.31
Hog slaughter projected at 468K
CME Lean Hog Index for 8/4: down 0.63 @ 120.94

Amanda Brill