TFM Midday Update 8-5-20

CORN

September up 0.015 @ 3.0975, December up 0.015 @ 3.2175, March up 0.015 @ 3.3375
Weather forecasts are showing good potential for above trend line yields
US and China will hold new trade talks on August 15
US corn prices are competitive on world export market
December futures are trading in a very quiet inside session
Oversold stochastics

August down 0.0375 @ 8.80, September down 0.035 @ 8.7625, November down 0.035 @ 8.7825
Weakness overnight in China bean futures and palm oil futures
Non threatening August weather will likely push yields above trend line
Talk of major shift to soybean acres in Argentina next year which should further boost global supplies
Talk that Trump may want to end Phase One deal with China as China is very far behind on buying agreed-upon US ag goods
November has fallen below the 50-day moving average support level
A close below the 50-day would be the first since June 1

December CHI up 0.005 @ 5.17, December KC up 0.0325 @ 4.3625, December up 0.005 @ 5.165
CHI futures are trading at a huge premium to the KC market
Black Sea wheat is still cheaper to import than US supplies
US dollar is retesting lows from last week
Egypt is tendering for wheat today
CHI futures made their first close below the 50-day moving average support level since July 7
CHI wheat retested the 50-day moving average resistance today but couldn’t break through
KC and MPLS futures are trying to stabilize near contract lows

August lives down 0.10 @ 102.17, October lives down 0.05 @ 107.42, December lives up 0.07 @ 111.45
August feeders down 0.27 @ 144.42, September feeders down 0.30 @ 146.32
Slaughter has been manageable lately, though heavy weights will add to production quickly if chain speed increases
Beef trend is choppy to higher, cash trend this week is already higher
October lives are testing the 200-day moving average support level in a quiet session so far

August down 0.45 @ 49.25, October down 0.10 @ 48.92, December up 0.75 @ 51.32
Cash index is still moving lower, pork values are choppy to lower as well
Hog slaughter is running much slower this week than last week and even slower than the same week last year
Trade tensions with China may slow export pace
October hogs tested the overhead 10 and 20-day moving average levels this morning but couldn’t break through

Bryan Doherty