TFM Midday Update 8-5-20


  • September up 0.015 @ 3.0975, December up 0.015 @ 3.2175, March up 0.015 @ 3.3375
  • Weather forecasts are showing good potential for above trend line yields
  • US and China will hold new trade talks on August 15
  • US corn prices are competitive on world export market
  • December futures are trading in a very quiet inside session
  • Oversold stochastics


  • August down 0.0375 @ 8.80, September down 0.035 @ 8.7625, November down 0.035 @ 8.7825
  • Weakness overnight in China bean futures and palm oil futures
  • Non threatening August weather will likely push yields above trend line
  • Talk of major shift to soybean acres in Argentina next year which should further boost global supplies
  • Talk that Trump may want to end Phase One deal with China as China is very far behind on buying  agreed-upon US ag goods
  • November has fallen below the 50-day moving average support level
  • A close below the 50-day would be the first since June 1


  • December CHI up 0.005 @ 5.17, December KC up 0.0325 @ 4.3625, December up 0.005 @ 5.165
  • CHI futures are trading at a huge premium to the KC market
  • Black Sea wheat is still cheaper to import than US supplies
  • US dollar is retesting lows from last week
  • Egypt is tendering for wheat today
  • CHI futures made their first close below the 50-day moving average support level since July 7
  • CHI wheat retested the 50-day moving average resistance today but couldn’t break through
  • KC and MPLS futures are trying to stabilize near contract lows


  • August lives down 0.10 @ 102.17, October lives down 0.05 @ 107.42, December lives up 0.07 @ 111.45
  • August feeders down 0.27 @ 144.42, September feeders down 0.30 @ 146.32
  • Slaughter has been manageable lately, though heavy weights will add to production quickly if chain speed increases
  • Beef trend is choppy to higher, cash trend this week is already higher
  • October lives are testing the 200-day moving average support level in a quiet session so far


  • August down 0.45 @ 49.25, October down 0.10 @ 48.92, December up 0.75 @ 51.32
  • Cash index is still moving lower, pork values are choppy to lower as well
  • Hog slaughter is running much slower this week than last week and even slower than the same week last year
  • Trade tensions with China may slow export pace
  • October hogs tested the overhead 10 and 20-day moving average levels this morning but couldn’t break through


Bryan Doherty

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