TFM Midday Update 8-6-20


  • September up 0.0025 @ 3.1125, December down 0.0025 @ 3.23, March down 0.0075 @ 3.3475
  • Ethanol production for the week ending July 31 was down 2.8% from the previous wee and down 10.5% from the same week last year
  • Dryness in Iowa is a growing concern but 6-10 day forecasts are showing above-normal precipitation for the entire state
  • The US sold 101,600 tonnes of corn for the week ending July 30, down sharply from last week and down 70% from the previous 4-week average
  • December futures are still trading within Tuesday’s range
  • Oversold stochastics


  • August down 0.0175 @ 8.8025, September down 0.0075 @ 8.755, November unchanged @ 8.7875
  • Dry areas in Iowa are forecast to see rain soon
  • Strong demand from China lately
  • Dollar stabilizing near recent lows
  • US sold 345,200 tonnes of beans for the week ending July 30, up 72% from last week but down 22% from the previous 4-week average
  • Soybean oil futures made hook reversals lower this week
  • Meal futures are close to contract lows
  • November beans tested their 50-day moving average resistance this morning but could not break through


  • September CHI down 0.065 @ 5.0425, September KC down 0.095 @ 4.17, September MPLS down 0.0475 @ 4.9675
  • US dollar is higher today and the trend lower may be ending
  • Egypt bought wheat this week from Ukraine and Russia
  • Wheat production in Canada is expected to be 16% higher than last year
  • US sold 605,500 tonnes of wheat for the week ending July 30, down 11% from last week but up 2% from the previous 4-week average
  • CHI futures tested the 50-day moving average resistance level and are now making a bearish outside session
  • KC and MPLS futures are extending the recent downtrend to new contract lows


  • August lives up 0.30 @ 102.60, October lives down 0.17 @ 107.27, December lives down 0.45 @ 111.20
  • August feeders down 0.52 @ 144.27, September feeders up 0.12 @ 146.60
  • Cash cattle prices are trending higher, beef values have been choppy to lower so far this week
  • Lower slaughter this week is helping to keep supply from overwhelming softer August demand
  • October lives have again tested and held their 200-day moving average support level
  • October lives traded at their highest level this morning since early March


  • August up 0.20 @ 49.65, October down 0.17 @ 49.12, December down 0.02 @ 51.45
  • The CME Lean Hog Index is up today, slowing the recent trend lower
  • Pork values are also trying to stabilize
  • Pork exports have slowed lately despite weakness in the US dollar
  • October hogs are still trading within their recent sideways range
  • 10-day moving average is holding staunch resistance


Bryan Doherty

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