TFM Midday Update 8-7-20


  • September down 0.035 @ 3.0775, December down 0.0325 @ 3.205, March down 0.03 @ 3.325
  • Rains in the forecast for Iowa should relieve some of the growing dryness concerns
  • US corn crops in a drought area dropped to 18% this week from 19% last week, the first weekly decline since April
  • Potential for some short covering into next week’s Supply and Demand report if rains miss Iowa
  • Dec futures are testing the contract lows made on Tuesday
  • Calendar spreads are weakening
  • Funds were net even in corn yesterday


  • August down 0.055 @ 8.7525, September down 0.0525 @ 8.695, November down 0.0575 @ 8.7225
  • China soybean imports slowed significantly in July
  • Most are expecting the USDA to raise the national yield estimate on next week’s report
  • Improving crop conditions which is unusual for this time of year
  • November futures are testing and holding the lower Bollinger Band and 100-day moving average support level
  • Lowest prices since June 30
  • Funds sold 2,000 contracts yesterday


  • December CHI down 0.0875 @ 4.995, December KC down 0.0625 @ 4.2225, December MPLS down 0.035 @ 5.0725
  • Russia and Canada are expected to raise huge crops this year
  • US dollar is making a strong push above the 10-day moving average resistance level
  • Egypt bought wheat this week from Ukraine and Russia
  • Improving weather for Australia
  • CHI futures at lowest prices since July 7, KC and MPLS futures are making new lows
  • All markets are sharply oversold
  • Funds sold 7,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • August lives up 0.47 @ 103.10, October lives up 0.27 @ 107.27, December lives down 0.05 @ 110.90
  • August feeders down 0.17 @ 143.30, September feeders up 0.07 @ 145.95
  • Slow slaughter pace so far this week is keeping beef production in check but adding to weights
  • Cash prices are trending higher and beef values are at their highest levels in a month
  • October lives tested the 10 and 200-day moving average support levels earlier in the morning and are now at session highs
  • September feeders are also at session highs after finding early sellers on yesterday’s reversal action


  • August up 1.30 @ 51.05, October up 1.37 @ 50.60, December up 0.85 @ 52.37
  • The cash Index and pork values are stabilizing
  • Belly values have jumped  over 12.00 from last week and Ham prices are up nearly 18.00 since Tuesday
  • Exports have been soft lately
  • October hogs are testing the 50-day moving average resistance level
  • A close above the 50-day would be the first since July 16 and could turn the technical trend higher


Bryan Doherty

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