TFM Midday Update 8-7-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday, but December futures have held above the 4-dollar level this week after dipping below it last week. Weather conditions are favorable, and the trade likely expects a bearish WASDE report on Monday, with an anticipated increase in yields.
Later today, the EIA will release its weekly petroleum report, and it is expected that ethanol production will be slightly lower this week after last week’s record production of 1.109 million bpd. With prices so low, domestic demand has been firm.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday the 12th are expecting the national corn yield to rise to 182.2 bpa which would compare to last month’s estimate of 181.0 bpa. Production is estimated at 151.124 mt, which would be slightly higher than last month’s 151 mmt.

Soybeans are trading lower at midday alongside corn but have recovered slightly from earlier morning lows. The trade expects higher soybean yields similar to corn, and weather remains bearish in the near term. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is following crude oil higher.
Similar to corn, the recent decline in soybean prices have made them much more competitive globally and we have seen an uptick in export demand. On Friday, China purchased 202,000 mt of soybeans which followed another sale on Thursday.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday have the average soybean yield improving to 52.5 bpa which would be up from last month’s 52.0 bpa. Production is estimated to be higher as well from last month.

Wheat has turned around from earlier this morning and now all three classes are trading lower. The dollar has been recovering since Monday’s stock market set back which could be putting some pressure on the commodity.
The average trade guess for 24/25 US wheat ending stocks is 859 mb, which would be up slightly from last month’s USDA 856 mb projection. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt. All wheat production in the US is expected to increase from last month’s estimate.
In the US, rain is forecast to fall throughout the northern Plains, which should bring relief to the spring wheat crop. The EU and German wheat crops are under stress from too much rain, with the French wheat crop is expected to see yields fall 20% below the 5-year average.

Amanda Brill