TFM Midday Update 9-05-2024

CORN

Corn is trading softer at midday following a 4-day rally that has seen prices rise 23 cents off their contract lows in the December contract. A cool front and scattered showers are moving through the Corn Belt, and trade may be expecting an increase in yields in next week’s WASDE report.
Trade estimates for today’s weekly ethanol production report see production slightly higher than last week at 1.072 million barrels per day. Stockpiles are expected to come in at 23.678m bbl, which would compare to 23.572m a week ago. Margins have been profitable which has driven domestic ethanol demand.
Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released its new estimate for the national corn yield and raised it to 182.9 bpa. Next Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report, showing their updated yield estimates.

Soybeans are trading lower today but have rallied steadily since putting in a contract low on August 16 as a result of dry forecasts during the pod fill timeframe. Soybean meal is down sharply, while soybean oil is higher with support from crude and palm oil.
Yesterday, StoneX revised its estimate for the US soybean yield and increased it along with corn to 53.0 bpa. The increase comes despite the dry forecast which many speculate could trim yields slightly
Brazil is only expected to increase its planted soybean acreage by 0.9% this year which is the slowest rate of growth in 18 years, but production estimates remain very high at around 168 mmt which would be up 14% from the previous crop.
Earlier this morning, the USDA reported that 189,700 mt of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the 24/25 marketing year, while 126,000 mt were sold to China for the same timeframe. This confirmed some of yesterday’s trade rumors.

All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Futures are likely correcting from overbought technicals after wheat rallied for 6 consecutive days. KC wheat saw 7 consecutive days of gains.
While the US has become competitive with most of the world, Russian and Ukrainian offers remain cheaper. Russian FOB offers are between $216 and $217 per mt which is unchanged from August despite a rise in global wheat prices.
In Ukraine, it is estimated that the 2025 planted winter wheat area could rise to more than 5 million hectares, compared to 4.7 million hectares in 2024. They are expected to plant less rapeseed in favor of wheat due to drought.

Amanda Brill