TFM Midday Update 9-1-20

CORN

September up 0.005 @ 3.49, December down 0.0025 @ 3.5725, March down 0.005 @ 3.67
G/EX ratings dropped 2% this week to 62%, still up 1% from the 10-year average
While production estimates are coming down, the balance sheet still does not look particularly tight
China has been a strong buyer in recent sessions
December futures mad an unsuccessful test of the 200-day moving average resistance level yesterday
Prices tested and held the 10-day moving average support level overnight
Stochastics are still overbought

September up 0.0325 @ 9.545, November up 0.0375 @ 9.5725, January up 0.035 @ 9.6325
G/EX conditions dropped 3% this week to 66%, still up 6% from the 10-year average
Market may need to see yield @ 51bpa to extend current uptrend
Malaysia palm oil futures were up 3.2% overnight to the highest levels in 7 months
US soybean oil futures made a bearish key reversal yesterday but are a bit higher this morning
November beans traded as low overnight as 9.4275 but have bounced back and are near the highs of the session so far

December CHI up 0.1225 @ 5.645, December KC up 0.1325 @ 4.885, December MPLS up 0.08 @ 5.475
US dollar at new lows for the move
Black Sea wheat is still the cheapest in the world, though Russian export prices have seen a notable rally lately
Spring wheat harvest @ 69% complete, up 20% from last year and down 1% from the 10-year average
CHI futures at highest prices since April 20, KC futures at highest prices since June 5
Possible double-top formation in MPLS futures
All three markets are still overbought

October lives down 0.37 @ 104.92, December lives down 0.27 @ 108.70, February lives down 0.07 @ 112.25
September feeders down 1.00 @ 139.30, October feeders down 1.02 @ 139.60
Beef trend seems to have turned lower, with two negative closes in a row following a three-week rally
Market-ready cattle supply is plentiful and poor pasture conditions over the past few weeks could add to weekly kill counts
Cash wires are quiet so far this week
October lives tested the 50-day moving average resistance level this morning for the second session in a row but have since fallen back

October up 1.32 @ 54.90, December up 0.77 @ 55.90, February up 0.82 @ 62.40
Pork values jumped sharply higher at midsession yesterday but closed with more moderate gains, likely indicating some export buying
Huge pork production lately may overwhelm current pork prices, especially if the seasonal increase in fall production materializes
China pig prices are expected to stay high as we approach China national holidays in October
October futures have bounced back above the 10-dayu moving average resistance level

Bryan Doherty