TFM Midday Update 9-1-20


  • September up 0.005 @ 3.49, December down 0.0025 @ 3.5725, March down 0.005 @ 3.67
  • G/EX ratings dropped 2% this week to 62%, still up 1% from the 10-year average
  • While production estimates are coming down, the balance sheet still does not look particularly tight
  • China has been a strong buyer in recent sessions
  • December futures mad an unsuccessful test of the 200-day moving average resistance level yesterday
  • Prices tested and held the 10-day moving average support level overnight
  • Stochastics are still overbought


  • September up 0.0325 @ 9.545, November up 0.0375 @ 9.5725, January up 0.035 @ 9.6325
  • G/EX conditions dropped 3% this week to 66%, still up 6% from the 10-year average
  • Market may need to see yield @ 51bpa to extend current uptrend
  • Malaysia palm oil futures were up 3.2% overnight to the highest levels in 7 months
  • US soybean oil futures made a bearish key reversal yesterday but are a bit higher this morning
  • November beans traded as low overnight as 9.4275 but have bounced back and are near the highs of the session so far


  • December CHI up 0.1225 @ 5.645, December KC up 0.1325 @ 4.885, December MPLS up 0.08 @ 5.475
  • US dollar at new lows for the move
  • Black Sea wheat is still the cheapest in the world, though Russian export prices have seen a notable rally lately
  • Spring wheat harvest @ 69% complete, up 20% from last year and down 1% from the 10-year average
  • CHI futures at highest prices since April 20, KC futures at highest prices since June 5
  • Possible double-top formation in MPLS futures
  • All three markets are still overbought


  • October lives down 0.37 @ 104.92, December lives down 0.27 @ 108.70, February lives down 0.07 @ 112.25
  • September feeders down 1.00 @ 139.30, October feeders down 1.02 @ 139.60
  • Beef trend seems to have turned lower, with two negative closes in a row following a three-week rally
  • Market-ready cattle supply is plentiful and poor pasture conditions over the past few weeks could add to weekly kill counts
  • Cash wires are quiet so far this week
  • October lives tested the 50-day moving average resistance level this morning for the second session in a row but have since fallen back


  • October up 1.32 @ 54.90, December up 0.77 @ 55.90, February up 0.82 @ 62.40
  • Pork values jumped sharply higher at midsession yesterday but closed with more moderate gains, likely indicating some export buying
  • Huge pork production lately may overwhelm current pork prices, especially if the seasonal increase in fall production materializes
  • China pig prices are expected to stay high as we approach China national holidays in October
  • October futures have bounced back above the 10-dayu moving average resistance level


Bryan Doherty

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