TFM Midday Update 9-10-2020


  • September up 0.0625 @ 3.5625, December up 0.04 @ 3.6425, March up 0.035 @ 3.7425
  • China corn futures rallied overnight to their highest prices in 5 years
  • Talk that China could import up to 30mmt of corn vs current USDA estimate of 7mmt
  • Traders are expecting a lower US crop estimate on tomorrow’s report
  • December corn tested and held the 10-day moving average support for the seventh session in a row this morning
  • Dec futures are trading at their highest level since March 27
  • Funds sold 5,000 contracts yesterday


  • September up 0.0325 @ 9.83, November up 0.005 @ 9.7925, January unchanged @ 9.8325
  • Talk of frost damage this week in the Dakotas and Minnesota
  • Talk that weather this year has been similar to 2003 where USDA dropped soybean yield 6 bushels from August to January
  • Expectations for better demand and smaller production on tomorrow’s report
  • November beans made their 12th consecutive higher close yesterday
  • November futures made higher highs today for the sixth session in a row
  • Technicals are sharply overbought
  • Funds bought 6,000 contracts yesterday


  • December CHI up 0.095 @ 5.5325, December KC up 0.1075 @ 4.8175, December MPLS up 0.065 @ 5.42
  • US dollar is lower today
  • Dryness in Ukraine and Russia have slowed plantings
  • European futures are at their highest prices since mid-July
  • CHI futures have pushed back above the 10-day moving average resistance after a successful test of the 200-day moving average support
  • KC futures are testing their 200-day moving average resistance level
  • MPLS futures are testing their 10-day moving average resistance level
  • Funds were net even in CHI wheat yesterday


  • October lives up 0.87 @ 105.57, December lives up 0.65 @ 109.80, February lives up 0.75 @ 114.17
  • September up 1.20 @ 139.60, October up 1.85 @ 140.10
  • Cash cattle trade so far this week has come up 1.00-2.00 lower than last week
  • Beef trend is lower
  • Futures are trading at a wider than normal premium to cash
  • October lives are testing the 50 and 200-day moving average resistance levels
  • Stochastics are making a bullish crossover


  • October up 3.00 @ 64.37, December up 3.00 @ 62.85, February up 3.00 @ 67.40
  • African swine fever was found in a dead wild boar in Germany yesterday
  • Pork and cash hog trend is higher
  • Slaughter pace normally increases significantly from September to November
  • October hogs gapped higher this morning and are locked at the highest prices since March 13
  • December hogs are starting to fill the gap created mid-March but created another gap this morning


Bryan Doherty

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