TFM Midday Update 9-10-2020 - Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson

CORN

September up 0.0625 @ 3.5625, December up 0.04 @ 3.6425, March up 0.035 @ 3.7425
China corn futures rallied overnight to their highest prices in 5 years
Talk that China could import up to 30mmt of corn vs current USDA estimate of 7mmt
Traders are expecting a lower US crop estimate on tomorrow’s report
December corn tested and held the 10-day moving average support for the seventh session in a row this morning
Dec futures are trading at their highest level since March 27
Funds sold 5,000 contracts yesterday

September up 0.0325 @ 9.83, November up 0.005 @ 9.7925, January unchanged @ 9.8325
Talk of frost damage this week in the Dakotas and Minnesota
Talk that weather this year has been similar to 2003 where USDA dropped soybean yield 6 bushels from August to January
Expectations for better demand and smaller production on tomorrow’s report
November beans made their 12th consecutive higher close yesterday
November futures made higher highs today for the sixth session in a row
Technicals are sharply overbought
Funds bought 6,000 contracts yesterday

December CHI up 0.095 @ 5.5325, December KC up 0.1075 @ 4.8175, December MPLS up 0.065 @ 5.42
US dollar is lower today
Dryness in Ukraine and Russia have slowed plantings
European futures are at their highest prices since mid-July
CHI futures have pushed back above the 10-day moving average resistance after a successful test of the 200-day moving average support
KC futures are testing their 200-day moving average resistance level
MPLS futures are testing their 10-day moving average resistance level
Funds were net even in CHI wheat yesterday

October lives up 0.87 @ 105.57, December lives up 0.65 @ 109.80, February lives up 0.75 @ 114.17
September up 1.20 @ 139.60, October up 1.85 @ 140.10
Cash cattle trade so far this week has come up 1.00-2.00 lower than last week
Beef trend is lower
Futures are trading at a wider than normal premium to cash
October lives are testing the 50 and 200-day moving average resistance levels
Stochastics are making a bullish crossover

October up 3.00 @ 64.37, December up 3.00 @ 62.85, February up 3.00 @ 67.40
African swine fever was found in a dead wild boar in Germany yesterday
Pork and cash hog trend is higher
Slaughter pace normally increases significantly from September to November
October hogs gapped higher this morning and are locked at the highest prices since March 13
December hogs are starting to fill the gap created mid-March but created another gap this morning

Bryan Doherty