TFM Midday Update 9-10-2025

CORN

Corn continues to edge lower at midday, with daily trading volume slowing ahead of Friday’s USDA Supply and Demand Report. Traders appear cautiously optimistic about the upcoming estimates. December corn is down 2 cents at 417 ¼.
Strong demand continues to support the corn market, with U.S. corn prices remaining competitive. This suggests that the USDA is unlikely to make any significant revisions in Friday’s supply and demand report.
Dry conditions are expected to persist across the central and eastern Midwest over the next two weeks, accompanied by rising temperatures.
Ukraine has raised its production estimates due to a strong crop outlook, while parts of the EU may face yield losses as heavy rains and storms have caused crop damage.
Ethanol production rose to 325 million gallons for the week ending Friday, August 29th, up from 316 million the previous week and 2.3% higher year-over-year. This marks the highest production level in 12 weeks and exceeded market expectations. Approximately 110 million bushels of corn were used in the production process.

The soybean market remains under pressure amid the continued absence of Chinese demand, as China has already secured 95% of its October needs from Brazil. November soybeans are down 4.6 cents at 1027 ¼ at midday.
Concerns are mounting that the USDA may be forced to lower new crop export estimates in Friday’s supply and demand report due to the continued lack of Chinese purchases. If this trend persists, the U.S. could potentially lose over 15 million tons of soybean demand from China by year-end.
Soybean planting has begun in Brazil; however, soil moisture levels in Mato Grosso are currently the lowest in 10 years, according to South American weather service EarthDaily Agro.
Dry weather persists across the eastern half of the Corn Belt, with limited chances of rain in the northern Plains. Rising temperatures are helping to eliminate frost risk for the remainder of the month.

Wheat continues to move lower at midday as there is little to no fresh news to put any drive under the wheat markets. December Chicago wheat is 3.4 cents lower at 517 ¼.
Chicago wheat prices remain under pressure, showing little to no movement over the past five sessions, as weak global prices continue to weigh on U.S. futures.
No significant changes or surprises are expected for wheat in Friday’s USDA report.
LSEG raised its Ukraine wheat production estimate by 3.3% from last month but left Canadian production unchanged.

Lauren VandenLangenberg