TFM Midday Update 9-11-2020


  • September up 0.0525 @ 3.625, December up 0.0375 @ 3.6875, March up 0.0325 @ 3.7825
  • Brazil is considering lifting import tariffs due to lack of domestic supplies
  • Brazil is also dealing with fieldwork delays and strong livestock feed demand are restricting exports
  • December futures made their first close above the 200-day moving average yesterday since August 2019
  • March futures made their very first close yesterday above the 200-day moving average for the life of the contract so far
  • Dec futures are at their highest prices this morning since March 25
  • Funds bought 17,000 contracts yesterday


  • September up 0.1175 @ 9.9675, November up 0.0825 @ 9.8575, January up 0.0775 @ 9.8925
  • La Nina weather pattern causing dryness in Brazil and Argentina
  • China has bought at least 1.733MMT of US beans over the past week
  • Still frost concerns in the Dakotas and Minnesota
  • November beans made their first lower close yesterday in 13 sessions
  • Nov futures have bounced back this morning and are trading at the highest prices since June 2018
  • Funds sold 1,000 contracts yesterday


  • December CHI down 0.0275 @ 5.455, December KC down 0.0025 @ 4.7375, December MPLS down 0.0075 @ 5.3475
  • Russian prices are in a gradual uptrend
  • Talk of dry planting weather in Black Sea region
  • Still, SovEcon just raised Russian production again, and Black Sea wheat is much cheaper than US supplies
  • CHI and KC futures are both trading between the 10 and 200-day moving average support and resistance levels
  • MPLS futures are testing the 20 and 100-day moving average support levels
  • Funds bought 4,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • October lives up 0.07 @ 105.17, December lives down 0.10 @ 109.32, February lives down 0.15 @ 113.90
  • September feeders up 0.30 @ 139.47, October feeders unchanged @ 139.60
  • Cash trade this week has been 1.00-2.00 lower than last week
  • Beef trend is lower
  • Weights jumped 6 lbs from the previous week, many are expecting slaughter to increase in the coming weeks
  • October lives and September feeders are still trapped between the 10-day moving average support and the 200-day moving average resistance
  • Stochastics made a bullish crossover yesterday but the trend is mostly sideways


  • October up 3.12 @ 67.52, December up 3.40 @ 66.27, February up 2.25 @ 69.65
  • Germany discovered African swine fever in a dead wild boar earlier this week
  • South Korea and Japan have halted pork imports from Germany
  • If China does the same, US could pick up some extra business
  • Pork and cash Index trend are higher
  • October futures are trading at the highest prices this morning since March 11
  • Technicals are sharply overbought


Bryan Doherty

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