TFM Midday Update 9-14-20

CORN

September up 0.0025 @ 3.6525, December down 0.0025 @ 3.6825, March down 0.005 @ 3.7775
USDA is expecting a 17mmt production deficit for China this year
Most are expecting lower China production and higher China demand in future reports
Brazil is extending a tariff-free import program with the US for 90 days starting today
December futures have traded in a choppy, two-way session so far this morning
Prices are still within the Bollinger Band range though stochastics are sharply overbought

September up 0.205 @ 10.055, November up 0.05 @ 10.01, January up 0.055 @ 10.0475
Beginning stocks were revised lower on Friday by 40mbu, but since September 1, nearly 957mbu have been sold to China alone
Friday’s yield reduction was still the second highest on record and may are expecting that to come down in future reports
US exports and China imports were left unchanged on Friday which also opens the door for future adjustments
November futures traded as high as 10.0875 overnight but have backed off after falling back below the upper Bollinger Band resistance
Stochastics are overbought but the trend is still higher

December CHI up 0.02 @ 5.44, December KC up 0.0125 @ 4.725, December MPLS down 0.0125 @ 5.31
Friday’s report showed no major changes to US and world balance sheets but did remind traders of record global wheat supplies
World stocks to use ratio @ 42.5% is also an all time record
Most are expecting Russian production numbers to keep rising
CHI futures tested, and are so far holding, their 20 and 200-day moving average support levels
KC futures tested their 10-day moving average resistance level but have fallen back below
MPLS futures tested their 20 and 100-day moving average resistance levels and are now pushing to new lows for the day

October lives up 1.40 @ 106.92, December lives up 1.45 @ 111.35, February lives up 1.07 @ 115.40
September feeders up 1.10 @ 141.10, October feeders up 1.70 @ 142.27
5-area average was down ~2.00 from the previous week
Cash trade was able to firm up a bit at the end of last week , but prices were still down from the previous week
October lives punched through their 20 and 50-day moving average resistance levels and are trading at their highest prices since August 26
September feeders have tested but not yet broken through the 20-day moving average resistance

October down 1.32 @ 65.25, December down 2.00 @ 64.00, February down 0.72 @ 68.75
Cash Index is higher and the pork trend is higher as well
China banned pork imports from Germany this morning which could be very beneficial for US exports
USDA report adjusted US production lower for the next four quarters
Technicals were sharply overbought after 12% rallies last week

Bryan Doherty