TFM Midday Update 9-14-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn down 8 @ 6.85
  • USDA’s corn carryout estimate for 22/23 at 1.219 bb is the lowest in 10 years
  • Today is last trading day for September grains
  • A potential railway strike could impact the movement of grains (as well as other goods) throughout the country
  • Tomorrow the market will get four weeks’ worth of export sales data
  • US corn is at a premium compared to Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine


  • Nov soybeans down 10 @ 14.69
  • USDA’s soybean carryout estimate for 22/23 at 200 mb is the lowest in seven years
  • There is talk that the Biden administration may impose sanctions against China (due to a possible Taiwan invasion) – this would hurt US soybean export demand to China
  • Yesterday China purchased five cargoes of Argentina soybeans
  • China is doing all they can to limit raw material imports from the US (including soybeans) but November price on their Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of $20.68 per bushel


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  • Dec wheat down 1 @ 8.60Dec KC up 8 @ 9.42, & Dec MNPLS up 7 @ 9.38
  • Chances of rain in the southern plains next week could help planting conditions
  • Russia is in the midst of talks with Turkey regarding the Ukraine export corridor deal (which expires in November)
  • The higher US Dollar offers resistance to the wheat market and a recession in the US could slow food demand
  • Wheat may remain in a trading range as the market waits for news regarding demand vs the possibility of the export corridor in Ukraine being shutdown


  • Oct LC down 0.100 @ 144.700 Sep FC up 0.475 @ 179.925
  • The food component of the CPI data increased 11.4% which is the fastest rate of increase since 1979 (this food inflation may curb demand for beef)
  • The possibility of a railway strike this week could impede feed movement to feedlots
  • Slaughter pace remains strong and above a year ago
  • Choice cuts down 2.28 and select down 2.18
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 127K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/13: down 0.85 @ 180.06


  • Oct hogs down 0.725 @ 95.025 & Oct pork cutout down 1.775 @ 103.000
  • The inflation numbers did not seem to impact hogs as they did cattle
  • Packers becoming more aggressive yesterday may signify that they have held back and now need to purchase hogs to maintain the slaughter pace
  • Without a higher trend in cutouts, upward futures price movement may be limited
  • National Direct Afternoon report increased 9.98
  • Hog slaughter projected at 479K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/14: down 0.62 @ 97.67


Brandon Doherty

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