TFM Midday Update 9-15-20

CORN

  • December down 0.0325 @ 3.665, March down 0.035 @ 3.755, May down 0.0325 @ 3.815
  • G/EX ratings came in yesterday @ 60%, down from 61% last week and unchanged from the 10-year average
  • China officials are expecting China to buy 7mmt of corn this year, but China has already committed to buy 9mmt of corn from the US alone, not including any sales to “unknown destinations”
  • China corn futures reached a new five year high overnight
  • December futures have looked soft all session
  • Stochastics are still overbought
  • Dec futures can fall as low as 3.62 without breaking the important 10-day moving average support level

SOYBEANS

  • November down 0.0725 @ 9.925, January down 0.0625 @ 9.97, March down 0.0475 @ 9.9725
  • G/EX ratings dropped to 63% vs 65% last week
  • Traders are worried that excessive rains forecasted for the second half of September
  • China continues to buy US soybeans into the rally
  • November beans have taken out yesterday’s lows
  • Technicals are sharply overbought so a bearish stochastics crossover could spark a significant correction

WHEAT

  • Dec CHI down 0.105 @ 5.3525, Dec KC down 0.0825 @ 4.655, Dec MPLS down 0.065 @ 5.24
  • US dollar is up today
  • Stats Canada dropped their production estimate yesterday to 34.1mmt from 35.74 last month, but still up 5.6% from last year
  • Increasing Russian export prices
  • CHI futures have fallen below the 20-day moving average support level and a close below would be the first since August 18
  • KC futures are testing the 20 and 100-day moving average support levels , and a close below both of those would be the first since August 14
  • MPLS futures are trading at their lowest prices since August 25

CATTLE

  • October lives down 0.17 @ 106.75, December lives down 0.45 @ 111.25, February lives down 0.10 @ 115.60
  • September feeders down 0.12 @ 141.37, October feeders down 0.67 @ 143.27
  • Choice beef values were down hard yesterday, cash markets are undeveloped so far
  • Many traders are expecting increasing beef demand in the coming weeks though production will also increase
  • October lives made a technical breakout yesterday but are a bit soft this morning
  • October lives are testing the 20 and 50-day moving average support levels that were resistance yesterday

HOGS

  • October up 1.05 @ 65.67, December down 0.55 @ 63.02, February down 0.07 @ 68.67
  • Cash Index is sharply higher this morning
  • Pork prices were down hard yesterday
  • Hog traders are still trying to weigh how Germany’s African Swin Fever situation will impact US exports
  • October futures traded sharply higher earlier in the session but have drifted back towards the lower third of the day’s range

Author

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Sam Seid

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