TFM Midday Update 9-15-20

CORN

December down 0.0325 @ 3.665, March down 0.035 @ 3.755, May down 0.0325 @ 3.815
G/EX ratings came in yesterday @ 60%, down from 61% last week and unchanged from the 10-year average
China officials are expecting China to buy 7mmt of corn this year, but China has already committed to buy 9mmt of corn from the US alone, not including any sales to “unknown destinations”
China corn futures reached a new five year high overnight
December futures have looked soft all session
Stochastics are still overbought
Dec futures can fall as low as 3.62 without breaking the important 10-day moving average support level

November down 0.0725 @ 9.925, January down 0.0625 @ 9.97, March down 0.0475 @ 9.9725
G/EX ratings dropped to 63% vs 65% last week
Traders are worried that excessive rains forecasted for the second half of September
China continues to buy US soybeans into the rally
November beans have taken out yesterday’s lows
Technicals are sharply overbought so a bearish stochastics crossover could spark a significant correction

Dec CHI down 0.105 @ 5.3525, Dec KC down 0.0825 @ 4.655, Dec MPLS down 0.065 @ 5.24
US dollar is up today
Stats Canada dropped their production estimate yesterday to 34.1mmt from 35.74 last month, but still up 5.6% from last year
Increasing Russian export prices
CHI futures have fallen below the 20-day moving average support level and a close below would be the first since August 18
KC futures are testing the 20 and 100-day moving average support levels , and a close below both of those would be the first since August 14
MPLS futures are trading at their lowest prices since August 25

October lives down 0.17 @ 106.75, December lives down 0.45 @ 111.25, February lives down 0.10 @ 115.60
September feeders down 0.12 @ 141.37, October feeders down 0.67 @ 143.27
Choice beef values were down hard yesterday, cash markets are undeveloped so far
Many traders are expecting increasing beef demand in the coming weeks though production will also increase
October lives made a technical breakout yesterday but are a bit soft this morning
October lives are testing the 20 and 50-day moving average support levels that were resistance yesterday

October up 1.05 @ 65.67, December down 0.55 @ 63.02, February down 0.07 @ 68.67
Cash Index is sharply higher this morning
Pork prices were down hard yesterday
Hog traders are still trying to weigh how Germany’s African Swin Fever situation will impact US exports
October futures traded sharply higher earlier in the session but have drifted back towards the lower third of the day’s range

Bryan Doherty