TFM Midday Update 9-16-20

CORN

December up 0.0325 @ 3.69, March up 0.0275 @ 3.785, May up 0.0275 @ 3.8375
6-10 day forecasts are showing good harvest weather
Continued Chinese interest in US corn
Calendar spreads are strengthening
December futures retested the 10 and 200-day moving average support levels overnight but surged back to positive territory after the 8:30 open
Overbought stochastics

November up 0.1975 @ 10.1125, January up 0.195 @ 10.15, March up 0.18 @ 10.14
China has continued to buy US beans into the rally
No major frost concerns for the next two weeks
China hog inventory increased 4.7% from July to August, illustrating their growing demand
November beans traded as low as 9.85 overnight but are now sharply higher
Bullish outside session forming
Technicals are sharply overbought

December CHI up 0.02 @ 5.4025, December KC up 0.0475 @ 4.7275, December MPLS up 0.0075 @ 5.25
Some dryness concerns for Black Sea region
US dollar has turned a bit lower this morning
Lots of outstanding wheat tenders this week
CHI futures are trapped between the 50-day moving average support level and the 20 and 200-day moving average resistance levels
KC futures are testing the 10-day moving average resistance level

October up 0.02 @ 107.12, December up 0.52 @ 112.10, February up 0.35 @ 116.37
September feeders down 0.67 @ 141.00, October feeders down 0.67 @ 143.00
Boxed beef values are trending lower, cash wires are quiet so far this week
Stock market optimism may support beef demand
Many traders are expecting beef production to accelerate in the next month or so
October lives retested 20 and 50-day moving average support levels and have bounced back to the upper end of the day’s range

October down 0.55 @ 65.15, December down 0.85 @ 62.22, February down 0.42 @ 68.27
Cash trend is still higher, pork cutouts are rallying as well
China hog inventory jumped nearly 5% in August from July
Asian countries have continued to ban German imports but supply fundamentals have not changed
October hogs are still trading within their recent range after the sharp rally last week

Bryan Doherty