TFM Midday Update 9-17-2020

CORN

December unchanged @ 3.72, March down 0.0025 @ 3.8075, May down 0.0025 @ 3.8675
Surge in energy and gold prices
Talk that China may have lost 5-10mmt of corn due to recent typhoons
Talk of lower US corn acreage next year
December futures closed at the 50% retracement of the contract range yesterday
Stochastics are overbought but buyers have done an impressive job of pulling corn back to positive territory on setbacks
Funds bought 20,000 contracts yesterday

November up 0.0525 @ 10.165, January up 0.055 @ 10.2075, March up 0.0475 @ 10.19
Relentless buying from China
Increasing harvest activities may slow down the buying a bit in the coming weeks
Talk that US farmers will increase soybean plantings next year by nearly 5%
November beans made their highest close yesterday in two years
Futures are extremely overbought technically though buying has been strong and steady all morning long
Funds bought 20,000 contracts yesterday

December CHI up 0.01 @ 5.43, December KC up 0.0175 @ 4.765, December MPLS unchanged @ 5.315
US dollar is weaker so far this morning
Russia has won 9 of the 12 tenders issued so far this week and holds about 80% of market share this season
Talk of dry planting conditions for the US and Black Sea
CHI futures are testing the 10 and 20-day moving average resistance levels
KC futures held the 10-day moving average support and are now trading just below the 200-day moving average resistance
MPLS futures were stopped at overhead resistance earlier in the morning and have sunk back to the lower half of the day’s range
Funds bought 3,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

October lives down 0.35 @ 106.37, December lives down 0.60 @ 111.35, February lives down 0.42 @ 115.82
September feeders down 0.52 @ 139.97, October feeders down 1.00 @ 141.42, November feeders down 1.20 @ 142.25
Cash cattle appear to be firming up a bit this week
Beef trend is still negative and prices are at their lowest levels in a month
October lives fell below the 50-day moving average support this morning but are still holding the 20-day moving average
The technical momentum is still pointing higher
October feeders are also testing and holding their 20-day moving average support

October up 1.22 @ 66.45, December up 1.72 @ 63.70, February up 0.47 @ 68.22
Cash index is still rallying
Pork prices have been choppy lately, likely hampered by increasing carcass weights
Slaughter numbers this week are lagging behind the same week last year
October futures, while up, are still well within the recent range
Stochastics are still overbought and have not yet made a bearish crossover

Bryan Doherty