TFM Midday Update 9-17-2020


  • December unchanged @ 3.72, March down 0.0025 @ 3.8075, May down 0.0025 @ 3.8675
  • Surge in energy and gold prices
  • Talk that China may have lost 5-10mmt of corn due to recent typhoons
  • Talk of lower US corn acreage next year
  • December futures closed at the 50% retracement of the contract range yesterday
  • Stochastics are overbought but buyers have done an impressive job of pulling corn back to positive territory on setbacks
  • Funds bought 20,000 contracts yesterday


  • November up 0.0525 @ 10.165, January up 0.055 @ 10.2075, March up 0.0475 @ 10.19
  • Relentless buying from China
  • Increasing harvest activities may slow down the buying a bit in the coming weeks
  • Talk that US farmers will increase soybean plantings next year by nearly 5%
  • November beans made their highest close yesterday in two years
  • Futures are extremely overbought technically though buying has been strong and steady all morning long
  • Funds bought 20,000 contracts yesterday


  • December CHI up 0.01 @ 5.43, December KC up 0.0175 @ 4.765, December MPLS unchanged @ 5.315
  • US dollar is weaker so far this morning
  • Russia has won 9 of the 12 tenders issued so far this week and holds about 80% of market share this season
  • Talk of dry planting conditions for the US and Black Sea
  • CHI futures are testing the 10 and 20-day moving average resistance levels
  • KC futures held the 10-day moving average support and are now trading just below the 200-day moving average resistance
  • MPLS futures were stopped at overhead resistance earlier in the morning and have sunk back to the lower half of the day’s range
  • Funds bought 3,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday


  • October lives down 0.35 @ 106.37, December lives down 0.60 @ 111.35, February lives down 0.42 @ 115.82
  • September feeders down 0.52 @ 139.97, October feeders down 1.00 @ 141.42, November feeders down 1.20 @ 142.25
  • Cash cattle appear to be firming up a bit this week
  • Beef trend is still negative and prices are at their lowest levels in a month
  • October lives fell below the 50-day moving average support this morning but are still holding the 20-day moving average
  • The technical momentum is still pointing higher
  • October feeders are also testing and holding their 20-day moving average support


  • October up 1.22 @ 66.45, December up 1.72 @ 63.70, February up 0.47 @ 68.22
  • Cash index is still rallying
  • Pork prices have been choppy lately, likely hampered by increasing carcass weights
  • Slaughter numbers this week are lagging behind the same week last year
  • October futures, while up, are still well within the recent range
  • Stochastics are still overbought and have not yet made a bearish crossover


Bryan Doherty

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