TFM Midday Update 9-2-20


  • September down 0.03 @ 3.465, December down 0.0125 @ 3.5675, March down 0.015 @ 3.6625
  • China has purchased 1.192mmt of corn from the US so far this week
  • Many are anticipating that China could run a 20-30mmt production deficit this year
  • Corn usage for ethanol production in July was reported at 477.2mbu, up 105.% from June but down 6% from last year
  • December futures tested and held the 10-day moving average support level yesterday and have acted a bit soft today
  • Still, it is hard to call the trend lower at this point
  • Stochastics are still overbought


  • September down 0.0175 @ 9.5325, November up 0.005 @ 9.5525, January up 0.0075 @ 9.6175
  • NOPA crush reached a new record for July @ 184.51mbu vs the previous record of 179.46mbu in 2019
  • This was the 9th monthly crush record of the 11 reported so far in the 2019/2020 marketing year
  • Brazilian real has devalued 29% against the US dollar over the past year, keeping Brazilian exports competitive
  • November futures have not yet traded outside yesterday’s range
  • Stochastics are overbought but sellers have not been able to create a turn lower just yet


  • December CHI down 0.085 @ 5.555, December KC down 0.0675 @ 4.7875, December MPLS down 0.0075 @ 5.455
  • Black Se wheat is still the cheapest in the world
  • Rallying Russian export prices could shift some tender action to the US
  • More talk about frost issues in Argentina and Australia
  • Dollar bouncing higher off new lows for the move
  • CHI and KC futures are lower in an inside session so far after making new highs for the move yesterday
  • MPLS futures extended the recent rally today and tested the 200-day moving average resistance level before falling back near session lows


  • October lives down 1.52 @ 103.95, December lives down 1.32 @ 107.80, February lives down 1.25 @ 111.50
  • September feeders down 1.87 @ 138.25, October feeders down 1.85 @ 138.77
  • Early week cash trade yesterday was near the low end of last week’s range
  • Hurricane moisture in the southern Plains could delay some marketings
  • Beef values had some stabilizing action yesterday afternoon
  • October lives briefly tested the 50-day moving average resistance level in the morning but have fallen to the lowest prices since July 28


  • October up 0.50 @ 55.52, December up 0.20 @ 55.97, February up 0.10 @ 62.17
  • Traders are hopeful that the normal seasonal increase in production for September and October will be a bit muted
  • Even without the increase in production, pork production is already running extremely high
  • Pork values have been choppy to higher
  • October futures closed above their 10-day moving average resistance level yesterday and has held that as support so far today
  • Trend and momentum are still pointing higher


Bryan Doherty

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