TFM Midday Update 9-2-20

CORN

September down 0.03 @ 3.465, December down 0.0125 @ 3.5675, March down 0.015 @ 3.6625
China has purchased 1.192mmt of corn from the US so far this week
Many are anticipating that China could run a 20-30mmt production deficit this year
Corn usage for ethanol production in July was reported at 477.2mbu, up 105.% from June but down 6% from last year
December futures tested and held the 10-day moving average support level yesterday and have acted a bit soft today
Still, it is hard to call the trend lower at this point
Stochastics are still overbought

September down 0.0175 @ 9.5325, November up 0.005 @ 9.5525, January up 0.0075 @ 9.6175
NOPA crush reached a new record for July @ 184.51mbu vs the previous record of 179.46mbu in 2019
This was the 9th monthly crush record of the 11 reported so far in the 2019/2020 marketing year
Brazilian real has devalued 29% against the US dollar over the past year, keeping Brazilian exports competitive
November futures have not yet traded outside yesterday’s range
Stochastics are overbought but sellers have not been able to create a turn lower just yet

December CHI down 0.085 @ 5.555, December KC down 0.0675 @ 4.7875, December MPLS down 0.0075 @ 5.455
Black Se wheat is still the cheapest in the world
Rallying Russian export prices could shift some tender action to the US
More talk about frost issues in Argentina and Australia
Dollar bouncing higher off new lows for the move
CHI and KC futures are lower in an inside session so far after making new highs for the move yesterday
MPLS futures extended the recent rally today and tested the 200-day moving average resistance level before falling back near session lows

October lives down 1.52 @ 103.95, December lives down 1.32 @ 107.80, February lives down 1.25 @ 111.50
September feeders down 1.87 @ 138.25, October feeders down 1.85 @ 138.77
Early week cash trade yesterday was near the low end of last week’s range
Hurricane moisture in the southern Plains could delay some marketings
Beef values had some stabilizing action yesterday afternoon
October lives briefly tested the 50-day moving average resistance level in the morning but have fallen to the lowest prices since July 28

October up 0.50 @ 55.52, December up 0.20 @ 55.97, February up 0.10 @ 62.17
Traders are hopeful that the normal seasonal increase in production for September and October will be a bit muted
Even without the increase in production, pork production is already running extremely high
Pork values have been choppy to higher
October futures closed above their 10-day moving average resistance level yesterday and has held that as support so far today
Trend and momentum are still pointing higher

Bryan Doherty