TFM Midday Update 9-20-2021


  • Dec down 4 @ 5.23
  • Over the weekend corn yields in the east reported to be a little less than what people had expected
  • Corn harvest is about 8% done – should accelerate over the next 2 weeks
  • Strong odds of a La Nina weather pattern this fall
  • Lower stock market, higher dollar, lower energy, lower commodity prices all weighing on the grains
  • Concern over probable collapse of Evergrande Group, a Chinese real estate conglomerate – $300 billion in debt and missed a major debt payment – could have ripple effects throughout the world


  • Nov down 17 @ 12.67
  • Still concern about export capability at the Gulf – some barges remain stranded onshore
  • Last week soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange hit the highest levels since 2013 (around the equivalent of $19.73 per bushel)
  • Rumors that China bought up to 10 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for October – November
  • Soybean harvest should accelerate over the coming weeks
  • Southern Brazil has received good rains, though central Brazil is mostly dry


  • Dec wheat down 7 @ 7.01, Dec KC down 11 @ 7.02, Dec MNPLS down 8 @ 8.93
  • Small grains report on September 30th – USDA will issue their final wheat production estimates
  • Warm, dry weather in the southern plains should help winter wheat plantings
  • Paris milling futures down the equivalent of 10 cents per bushel today
  • Ukraine wheat harvest is reported to be complete – production at 33mmt
  • Wheat crops in Argentina need more rain


  • Oct LC down 0.55 @ 122.25 & Oct FC down 0.275 @ 156.10
  • Cattle having a hard time finding support
  • Next cattle on feed report comes out Friday
  • Packers unwilling to pay more for cattle, watching the weakness of boxed beef and futures
  • Choice cuts down 3.53 & select down .52 on Friday
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/17: up 0.58 @ 154.60


  • Oct hogs unchanged @ 85.725 & Oct pork cutout down 0.55 @ 101.175
  • Cash has not been very supportive to the market
  • Packers have been able to obtain sufficient numbers to meet demand
  • Hogs maintain a large discount to cash
  • Hog slaughter projected at 475K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/17: down 0.19 @ 94.26


Brandon Doherty

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