TFM Midday Update 9-20-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher today for the second consecutive day. Prices remain very rangebound as harvest begins.
Forecasts are calling for clear weather in the central and eastern Corn Belt which should help harvest advance, but rains expected in the western Belt could slow things down a bit.
US export sales have been very sluggish for corn as Brazil ramps up their exports with more competitive prices and Ukraine begins to ship grains out again.
Brazil’s CONAB revised their estimate of the 23/24 corn crop sharply lower to 119.8 mmt after planted corn acres were reduced by 4.8% in favor of more soybean acres.

Soybeans are trading lower again today following three consecutively lower closes due to harvest pressure. Soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday, Brazil’s CONAB estimated that the soybean crop for 23/24 would increase to a new record large production of 162.8 mmt as planted acres expand by 2.8%.
One bullish factor for soybeans is the profitable crush margins that range from $2.50 in the West to as high as $3.15 in the eastern belt with soybean futures falling more than its products.
This morning, the USDA confirmed a sale of 120,000 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.

All three wheat products are trading higher today with Chicago in the lead as prices search for a bottom. Seasonal charts tend to move higher around this time of year.
Australia has been experiencing ongoing drought due the El Nino pattern, and as the drought continues, Australian wheat production and exports could fall sharply this year.
Russian grain exports are now seen at 60 mmt for the current season and the total grain harvest is expected to reach 130 mmt with 123 mmt harvested so far.
Egypt has swapped out sales of nearly half a million tons of Russian wheat in favor of French and Bulgarian wheat after objecting to Moscow’s pricing.

Amanda Brill