TFM Midday Update 9-20-2024

CORN

The corn market continues to struggle at midday as sellers maintain control with a lack of fresh bullish news and harvest beginning to ramp up.
There have been no reported large private export sales by the USDA this week, which may put a damper on next week’s weekly Export Sales report. Though China remains absent from the US corn export market as of late, yesterday the USDA reported 33.36 mb of corn sold as of September 12, which was in line with expectations and higher than the previous week.
Mississippi River levels continue to be a concern with barge traffic running with restricted payloads and tow sizes, which is pressuring basis levels. While the Midwest is seeing some rain move through the region, more will be needed to restore river levels.

Soybean prices tumbled, along with meal earlier this morning despite a flash sale to China. They are now trading at the lower end of their range after giving up overnight gains, as the market continues to trend sideways.
The USDA reported private export sales totaling 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery during the 24/25 marketing year to China. This marks just the second reported flash sale for the week, following a previous 132,000 mt sale of soybeans to unknown destinations on Monday.
According to an executive at Agrovet in India, the country’s palm oil production is expected to increase 3 fold in the next 6 years as oil palm plantations increase and become mature for harvest. This is expected to allow India to reduce its reliance on imported palm oil and could affect bean oil prices long term.
Just as the Mississippi River is dealing with low water levels due to dry weather, the Amazon River basin in South America is experiencing similar conditions, limiting grain loads and potentially slowing exports.

A generally quiet news day for the ag markets has the wheat complex trading mixed at midday as the December contracts across all three classes hold support near yesterday’s lows.
The prolonged drought in Argentina is prompting some farmers to abandon some wheat fields in the north and west agricultural regions. Meanwhile, in the eastern areas, it’s been noted that about 80% of the wheat crop is in normal to excellent condition.
In Western Australia, the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia reduced its estimate of the region’s wheat production by 7% from last month to 9.3 million metric tons due to dry weather. Australia as a whole is expected to produce 31.8 mmt, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Scott Masters