TFM Midday Update 9-22-2021

CORN

  • Dec up 4 @ 5.21
  • Concerns about China’s economy may be subsiding, offering some support to the grains
  • Ethanol production margins are sharply positive
  • Dec corn remains above the 200 day moving average
  • This year’s higher shipping costs are discouraging exports
  • USDA increased its China corn crop estimate to 273mmt (10.75bb)
  • Jan corn on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $9.67 per bushel

SOYBEANS

  • Nov up 2-1/2 @ 12.76-1/2
  • Total export commitments in 21/22 are down 31% from a year ago
  • Expectations that Brazil will expand its soybean planted acreage this fall
  • Talk that elevators in the Gulf will be reopening soon
  • US Midwest is expected to be mostly dry for the next 2 weeks – good for harvest
  • USDA estimating a 4.37bb soybean crop this fall
  • Nov soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of $19.43 per bushel

WHEAT

  • Dec wheat up 10-1/2 @ 7.00-3/4, Dec KC up 10 @ 7.00-1/2, Dec MNPLS up 8-3/4 @ 8.96-1/2
  • This week, Russian analyst SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop estimate 200,000mt to 75.6mmt
  • Little fresh news in wheat / no strong influence on wheat prices
  • Winter wheat planting in Argentina has begun
  • La Nina could keep southern Brazil / northern Argentina drier than normal this year
  • Funds are short Chicago wheat

CATTLE

  • Oct LC up 0.80 @ 123.250 & Oct FC up 0.350 @ 156.97
  • Next cattle on feed report comes out Friday
  • Estimated on-feed numbers for the report at 98.1% of last year – placements estimated at 99.5% – marketings estimated at 99.8%
  • Boxed beef plummeted yesterday
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 120K
  • Choice cuts down 4.29 & select down 2.74
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/21: up 0.02 @ 153.77

HOGS

  • Oct hogs down 0.275 @ 84.10 & Oct pork cutout up 0.15 @ 100.500
  • Packers do not need to bid up to obtain the needed supply of hogs
  • China has reduced their import of pork – August down 20.6% from August 2020
  • Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report comes out Friday
  • Hog slaughter projected at 477K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/21: down 0.48 @ 93.56

Author

Brandon Doherty

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