TFM Midday Update 9-23-2026

CORN

Corn is trading lower at midday as uncertainty remains over whether corn will be included in upcoming U.S.-China trade talks. December corn is 7-3/4 cents lower at 5.29-1/4.
USDA confirms the sale of 100,000 tons of U.S. corn for delivery to Mexico in 2026/27.
Cordonnier estimates U.S. corn yields at 175–177 BPA, while harvested acres could decline by 300,000–500,000 as more corn acres are shifted to silage.
Ethanol production fell to 302 million gallons last week, down from 323 million the previous week, while up less than 1% year-over-year.

Soybeans are sharply lower at midday ahead of the upcoming U.S.-China meeting, with both soybeans and soybean oil trading lower. November soybeans are 8-3/4 cents lower at 13.17.
U.S.-China trade talks are scheduled to begin in about 24 hours. The current trade truce is expected to be extended for at least another six months, but the market may be looking for soybean purchase commitments above 25 million tons per year to view the outcome as supportive.
Another factor currently influencing the market is a slower-than-expected harvest. Crushing plants had anticipated an early harvest, causing supplies to run tight in the western Corn Belt. Harvest delays are expected to continue, with rain forecast from the Southwest Plains north into Nebraska and Iowa.
Rains in southern Brazil have been beneficial for planting, with the state of Paraná now 15% complete.

Wheat is trading noticeably lower at midday as it may be the only major grain left out of the U.S.-China trade talks, with U.S. prices currently less competitive on the global market. December Chicago wheat is 7 cents lower at 7.10-1/2, while December Kansas City wheat is 9-1/2 cents lower at 7.71-3/4.
Additional pressure is hitting the wheat market from a wetter forecast for drought-affected areas of the U.S. Plains, suggesting much-needed soil moisture may be on the way.
Russia struck another ship and logistics center in Odesa overnight. Meanwhile, Russia’s deputy prime minister said the country’s harvest is above last year’s levels and that Russia will use all available logistics capacity to move agricultural products for export.
Ukraine’s harvest is complete, with final production totals coming in 11% above last year.

Lauren VandenLangenberg