TFM Midday Update 9-24-2021

CORN

Dec down 2 @ 5.28
Financial and grain markets lower over more concern with the Chinese Evergrande situation – talk that they missed an interest payment
We could see some positioning in the grains ahead of the September stocks report, month end, and quarter end
Argentina has about 8% of their corn crop planted, Brazil closer to 20%
The market is still waiting for the Gulf to open
Nearby weather looks ideal for harvest
January corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of 9.79 per bushel

Nov up 2 @ 12.87
The market is waiting for the Gulf to get back up and running to potentially see increased US soybean sales
China has ordered soybean crushing plants in 2 provinces to shut down as part of a 5-year plan to reduce emissions – it is unknown for how long they will be shut down
Harvest weather looks ideal and should be mostly dry over the next 2 weeks
Demand from China will be a key factor going into the new season
November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of 19.82 per bushel

Dec wheat up 7 @ 7.25, Dec KC up 3 @ 7.23, Dec MNPLS up 2 @ 9.14
Rumors that China may have come in and bought European wheat, and may have also bought US SRW wheat
There is question about the quality of European wheat
Still talk that Russia will impose some type of rationing on wheat exports starting January 1
Argentina and Russia have beneficial rains predicted in their forecasts
Bullish fundamentals should keep prices supported into next year

Oct LC down 0.325 @ 122.900 & Oct FC up 0.025 @ 156.875
Traders evened up positions ahead of the Cattle on Feed report (due for release this afternoon)
Cash trade today might be minimal as packers and feedlots may wait for the report results to be released
Average trade estimate for on-feed numbers is 97.9%
Cattle slaughter projected at 116K
Choice cuts down 2.23 & select down 0.51
CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/23: up 0.92 @ 154.49

Oct hogs down 0.275 @ 84.475 & Oct pork cutout up 0.175 @ 102.000
Traders positioning ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report (due for release this afternoon)
Average trade estimate for all-hogs is 98.3% of last year
Fears over African Swine Fever are rising in the US
National Direct Afternoon report was down $0.63
Hog slaughter projected at 472K
CME Lean Hog Index for 9/23: down 0.76 @ 91.89

Brandon Doherty