TFM Midday Update 9-24-2021


  • Dec down 2 @ 5.28
  • Financial and grain markets lower over more concern with the Chinese Evergrande situation – talk that they missed an interest payment
  • We could see some positioning in the grains ahead of the September stocks report, month end, and quarter end
  • Argentina has about 8% of their corn crop planted, Brazil closer to 20%
  • The market is still waiting for the Gulf to open
  • Nearby weather looks ideal for harvest
  • January corn on China’s Dalian exchange is around the equivalent of 9.79 per bushel


  • Nov up 2 @ 12.87
  • The market is waiting for the Gulf to get back up and running to potentially see increased US soybean sales
  • China has ordered soybean crushing plants in 2 provinces to shut down as part of a 5-year plan to reduce emissions – it is unknown for how long they will be shut down
  • Harvest weather looks ideal and should be mostly dry over the next 2 weeks
  • Demand from China will be a key factor going into the new season
  • November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are around the equivalent of 19.82 per bushel


  • Dec wheat up 7 @ 7.25, Dec KC up 3 @ 7.23, Dec MNPLS up 2 @ 9.14
  • Rumors that China may have come in and bought European wheat, and may have also bought US SRW wheat
  • There is question about the quality of European wheat
  • Still talk that Russia will impose some type of rationing on wheat exports starting January 1
  • Argentina and Russia have beneficial rains predicted in their forecasts
  • Bullish fundamentals should keep prices supported into next year


  • Oct LC down 0.325 @ 122.900 Oct FC up 0.025 @ 156.875
  • Traders evened up positions ahead of the Cattle on Feed report (due for release this afternoon)
  • Cash trade today might be minimal as packers and feedlots may wait for the report results to be released
  • Average trade estimate for on-feed numbers is 97.9%
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 116K
  • Choice cuts down 2.23 & select down 0.51
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/23: up 0.92 @ 154.49


  • Oct hogs down 0.275 @ 84.475 & Oct pork cutout up 0.175 @ 102.000
  • Traders positioning ahead of the Hogs & Pigs report (due for release this afternoon)
  • Average trade estimate for all-hogs is 98.3% of last year
  • Fears over African Swine Fever are rising in the US
  • National Direct Afternoon report was down $0.63
  • Hog slaughter projected at 472K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/23: down 0.76 @ 91.89


Brandon Doherty

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