TFM Midday Update 9-26-2023

CORN

Corn crop ratings improved 2% to 53% good to excellent. Expectations were for steady conditions to maybe a slight decline. Additionally, harvest has reached 15% complete, which is above both last year and the average.
Scattered showers in the Great Lakes region and eastern Corn Belt over the next few days will cause some harvest delays. But most of the Corn Belt should see harvest progress with good weather over the next week or so.
In South America, there is divergence between the two main weather models. The European model has better chances for rain in central Brazil, but the American model is still dry.
The US sold 65.2 mb of corn to Mexico, with 41.3 mb of that total for the 23/24 season.

Soybean crop ratings fell 2% to 50% good to excellent, which was in line with expectations. Additionally, harvest has advanced to 12% complete, also in line with expectations.
Overnight November soybeans rallied back above the 100-day moving average but have since faded and are trading lower this morning.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower at midday, offering no support to soybean futures.
According to Ag Rural, as of September 21, Brazil’s soybean planting is 1.9% complete versus 1.5% at the same time last year.

According to the USDA, spring wheat harvest is now 96% complete, and winter wheat planting is 26% done, which is slightly below the average of 29%.
Russia continues to export wheat at historically low prices, which has been keeping pressure on the wheat market. This is despite the threat of lower production in Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Europe.
It was announced that a third vessel has left Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, attempting to travel via the humanitarian corridor. However, threats from Russia remain a concern with new Russian attacks on grain facilities in Izmail (an export area on the Danube River).
Aside from issues caused by war, Ukraine has had little rain for the past 30-40 days and this drought may take a toll on their winter wheat.

Brandon Doherty