TFM Midday Update 9-28-2023

CORN

The USDA reported an increase of 33.1 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and 0.6 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 28.7 mb were below the 40.0 mb per week pace needed to meet the export goal of 2.050 bb for 23/24.
The average pre-report estimate for corn stocks as of September 1 comes in at 1.433 bb, versus 1.377 bb at the same time last year.
Ethanol margins remain strong, and production was higher this past week at 1.004 million barrels per day. Crude oil is also still in an uptrend, and though it has been on both sides of neutral this session, it tested $95 per barrel on the November contract.
Corn continues to trade in a relatively narrow range. Harvest pressure is adding resistance, but relatively low prices are keeping support under the market. It may take some fresh news to see a breakout either way, which could come in the form of tomorrow’s report data.
Rumors are circulating that Ukraine is selling and shipping corn to China. Meanwhile, China’s corn harvest is starting, and their crop is projected to be up 3% from last year at 285 mmt.

The USDA reported an increase of 24.7 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 20.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb per week pace needed to meet the export goal of 1.790 bb for 23/24.
The average pre-report estimate for soybean stocks as of September 1 comes in at 244 mb, versus 274 mb at the same time last year.
The low for November soybeans on August 8 was 12.82-1/4. So far, that support level has not been violated, but November beans are back below the 100-day moving average and a close below the 1282 level could open up the downside from a technical perspective.
Next week begins China’s Golden Week holiday, so not much business is expected from them during that time.

The USDA reported an increase of 20.0 mb in wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 21.5 mb were above the 14.1 mb per week pace needed to meet the 23/24 export goal of 700 mb.
The average pre-report estimate for wheat stocks as of September 1 comes in at 1.774 bb, versus 1.778 bb at the same time last year.
The average pre-report estimate for U.S. all wheat production is pegged at 1.731 bb, compared to 1.734 bb in August and 1.650 bb in 2022.
Egypt’s tender resulted in purchases of 120,000 mt of wheat from Romania, and 60,000 mt from Bulgaria. Somewhat surprisingly, those offers were cheaper than Russia FOB offers by $10-$15 per mt.

Brandon Doherty