TFM Midday Update 9-29-20

CORN

  • December up 2 @ 3.67
  • Export inspections reported at 806K mt up from last wk’s 755K mt
  • Export sales of 207K mt of corn – delivery unknown & 112K mt of corn – delivery Japan
  • Argentina received much needed rains in the south but north left hot & dry – 15% harvested
  • Corn futures lower as harvest expands & China demands appears to be slowing
  • 6-10 forecast, U.S. weather supportive for harvest for most
  • Managed money net positions:  Long 95,912
  • Preliminary Open Interest saw corn up 1,800 contracts

SOYBEANS

  • November down 7 3/4 @ 9.94 3/4
  • Export inspections reported at 1.21M mt down from last wk’s 1.31M mt
  • Exports sales 218K mt of soybeans – delivery unknown
  • Brazil’s center west & center south crop areas will be dry into Oct, further delaying early planting for soybeans
  • Managed money net positions:  Long 211,143
  • Preliminary Open Interest saw soybeans up 380 contracts
  • Soybean futures lower & appear destined for the 5th lower close in the last 6 trading days
  • China buying appears to be slowing
  • Aggressive soybean harvest should be expected within the next 10 days – soy harvest expected to be at 15%

WHEAT

  • December CHI up 3 3/4 @ 5.48, KC Dec up 3 3/4 @ 4.75 1/2 MNPLS Dec up 4 ¾ @ 4.80
  • Export inspections reported at 563K mt  up from last wk’s 469K
  • U.S. HRW wheat will be dry for the next 10-14 days and excessive heat & dryness has already depleted soil moisture
  • Russia’s Southern Region remains too dry for winter crop planting
  • Choppy trade as trade monitors global stocks
  • Managed money net positions:  Long 14,543, KC wheat Long 18,463
  • Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,100 contracts; HRW Wheat down 445
  • Timely rains in Argentina & Ukraine
  • USD down today @ 94.38

CATTLE

  • October Live Cattle up .30 @ 107.87 & October Feeders down .12 @ 140.2
    • Feedlot placements up 0.2%, highest weight since Nov 2015
    • Dow Jones projected slaughter 120K head vs last wk’s 121K
    • Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was deemed slightly bearish, on-feed numbers 4% above a year ago
    • Country is quiet today, with both buyers & sellers taking inventory
    • Bids & asking prices not established, trade volume may be delayed un Wednesday
    • Beef cutouts are expected to be mixed with light box movement
    • Cash index for FC @ 142.23 down $.36
    • Open interest added 529 positions for LC & 236 positions for FC on Friday

HOGS

  • October up .75 @ 72.50
  • Short-term news positive, market looking top heavy
  • Long term bearish forces but ash news is supportive
  • Down Jones projected slaughter 483K head vs last wk’s 481K
  • October cattle higher with continued buying based on short-term needs
  • Highest price since Feb 2020

Author

Bryan Doherty

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