TFM Midday Update 9-29-20

CORN

December down 0.0525 @ 3.6175, March down 0.045 @ 3.71, May down 0.0425 @ 3.7675
Corn harvest was seen @ 15% complete vs 10% last year and 20% on average
G/EX was unchanged @ 61%
Below-normal rainfall for the next two weeks should help speed up harvest
December futures made a bullish outside session yesterday after a successful test of the 20 and 200-day moving average support levels
Corn prices have fallen back below the 20-day moving average support but are holding the 200-day so far
Lack of follow-though buying on yesterday’s reversal-type action is disappointing

November down 0.0775 @ 9.885, January down 0.0775 @ 9.925, March down 0.0675 @ 9.895
Harvest reported @ 20% complete vs 6% last year and 16% on average
G/EX came in @ 64% vs 59% on average
Talk of better than expected yields in the central Corn Belt
Brazil plantings are slow due to lack of moisture and a lack of rain in the near-term forecast shouldn’t change that
November beans held the 20-day moving average support level yesterday afternoon but quickly fell through this morning
A close below the 20-day would be the first since August 12 and could spark even more of a pullback

December CHI down 0.0175 @ 5.485, December KC down 0.0475 @ 4.78, December MPLS down 0.03 @ 5.2675
US dollar making a pullback and currently holding the 10-day moving average support
US winter wheat planting seen @ 35% complete vs 20% last week, 34% last year and 34% on average
The Russian winter wheat crop is about 60% planted but topsoil is very dry
CHI futures tested the 10 and 20-day moving average resistance levels this morning but have since backed off
KC futures tested the 10 and 200-day moving average resistance but have fallen back through the 20-day moving average
Spring wheat is trading in an inside session and has fallen below the 50-day moving average support

October lives up 0.62 @ 108.57, December lives up 0.95 @ 112.60, February lives up 0.90 @ 115.92
October feeders up 1.85 @ 142.77, November feeders up 2.52 @ 143.62
Heavy carcass weights and expectations that slaughter could increase soon
Beef trend is choppy to lower
Cash trade was quiet yesterday but the firming prices at the end of last week are supportive
October lives gapped higher this morning and tested the upper Bollinger Band resistance line
October feeders are testing the 50-day moving average resistance level this morning, and a close above would be the first since September 15

October up 0.20 @ 72.90, December down 1.35 @ 62.67, February down 1.22 @ 67.47
Cash Index trend is still higher
Highest pork prices since May
Lower US dollar should help to spur some more export activity
October futures are trading in a quiet two-way range
December and February futures have fallen below the 10-day moving average support levels but held the 20-day moving average support

Bryan Doherty