TFM Midday Update 9-30-20

CORN

  • Dec down 2 @ 3.62 ¾
  • Yesterday reported funds sold 10,000 contracts & open interest down 85 contracts
  • Dec resistance @ 3.60 & support @ 3.70
  • Stocks report will estimate ending stocks for the ’19-20 year
  • May need help from USDA to avoid further harvest selling
  • Early planting still delayed in Brazil’s west & center south – need rain

SOYBEANS

  • Nov up 8 ½ @ 10.01 ½
  • Yesterday reported funds sold 4,000 contracts & open interest up 11,300 contracts
  • Nov resistance @ 9,85 & support @ 10.09
  • Stocks report will estimate ending stocks for the ’19-20 year
  • Bearish news could spark aggressive selling with big funds long
  • Export sale of 215K MT – buyer unknown

WHEAT

  • Dec Chi up 9 ¾ @ 5.59 ¼, Dec KC up 12 ¾ @ 4.89, Dec MNPLS up 9 ½ @ 5.34 ¼
  • Yesterday reported funds sold 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat & open interest down 4,300 contracts for SRW wheat & down 240 contracts for HRW wheat
  • Today’s stock report will be a reflection of the first quarter usages offset by any change the USDA sees in final wheat production.
  • Dec Chi support @ 5.43 & resistance @ 5.57, Dec KC support @ 4.63 & resistance @ 4.83, Dec MNPLS support @ 5.22 & resistance @ 5.33
  • Increased concerns for next year’s Black Sea & Russian plantings

CATTLE

  • Oct Live Cattle up .12 @ 109.02 & Oct Feeders down .25 @ 142.67
  • Feedlot placements up 9.2% from last year, On-Feed supply +3.8%
  • Cash trade remains undeveloped
  • FC prices unlikely to back away from asking prices anytime soon if futures remain strong

HOGS

  • Oct up .07 @ 72.45
  • Bearish longer-term fundamentals weigh on futures; big discount
  • Traders trying to square positions in front of month end
  • There are concerns that hog supplies will limit further price support
  • Wild boars with ASF in Germany continue to cause uncertainty about U.S. exports
  • Open interest fell 572 positions

Author

Bryan Doherty

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