TFM Midday Update 9-7-2023


  • Corn has been on both sides of unchanged near midday as markets trade quietly ahead of Tuesday’s USDA report. Hot and dry conditions are causing harvest to begin a bit early.
  • StoneX revised their national corn yield estimate to 175 bpa, which is 2 bpa below their previous estimate but in line with the USDA’s last estimate.
  • Average estimates for next week’s WASDE report from RJO Brien show corn yields at 173.4 bpa with an ending stocks number of 2,134 mb.
  • Brazil’s export group, ANEC, has reported that exports for September are projected to hit 9.67 mmt which is up significantly from the previous year which was 6.85 mmt.


  • Soybeans are trading lower along with both soy products, but soybean oil is down sharply despite the recent rally in crude oil. Falling palm oil prices have weighed on soybean oil.
  • The hot and dry conditions have really taken a toll on soybeans, giving the feeling that the crop is shrinking. Expectations are that the next crop progress report will show a further drop of crop ratings by 2-3%.
  • RJO Brien released estimates for Tuesday’s WASDE report with the average trade guess for soybean yields at 50.1 bpa and 23/24 ending stocks at a very tight 213 mb.
  • Customs data has shown that China’s soy imports for August have risen to 9.36 mmt which is up 31% from a year ago, and total imports for the first 8 months are at 71.6 mmt.


  • As of midday all three wheat classes are lower after a failed rally attempt earlier in the session. Weather concerns in some major exporting countries have been supportive of prices.
  • While Ukraine has been attempting to export wheat via their own corridor, Russia has continued their drone attacks on both the Black Sea and Danube River ports limiting Ukraine’s export capabilities.
  • In Australia’s wheat areas, dryness is expanding after the Bureau of Meteorology revealed that August rain amounts were down nearly 50% from the 30-year average which is detrimental to the crop.
  • In Brazil, wheat areas are receiving too much rain with flooding rains in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul threatening yields.


Amanda Brill

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