TFM Midday Update 9-9-2020

CORN

September down 0.025 @ 3.485, December down 0.0275 @ 3.59, March down 0.0225 @ 3.6975
Moderate to heavy rains forecast in major China growing regions today
Expectations of lower crop estimate on Friday’s report
Lower crop conditions this week may be a function of faster maturing crop than usual due to excess heat in August
December futures tested and held the 10-day moving average support level this morning for the sixth session in a row
Dec futures also tested and failed to break through the 200-day moving average resistance for the second session in a row
Funds bought about 10,000 contracts yesterday

September up 0.04 @ 9.77, November up 0.04 @ 9.77, January up 0.035 @ 9.8175
USDA Foreign Agriculture Service increased their China soybean import figure for the marketing year to 95mmt vs 91mmt two months ago
China made their largest single-day purchase of US beans yesterday in seven weeks (664,000 tonnes)
November beans have closed higher 11 sessions in a row
November futures are currently at their highest prices since January 9
Stochastics and RSI are sharply overbought
Funds bought 6,000 contracts yesterday

December CHI up 0.0325 @ 5.4775, December KC up 0.0525 @ 4.7475, December MPLS up 0.02 @ 5.3825
Improving weather conditions in Argentina and Australia
Australia production is expected to nearly double last year’s production that was hampered by drought and fires
Ukraine and Russia have been aggressive exporters lately
CHI futures tested and held the 200-day moving average support this morning
KC futures tested their 100-day moving average support and are now trading above the 10-day moving average resistance
MPLS futures are trading with some stabilizing action after yesterday’s breakdown
Funds sold 6,000 contracts of CHI wheat yesterday

October lives down 1.75 @ 104.02, December lives down 1.72 @ 108.40, February lives down 1.47 @ 112.52
September feeders down 1.35 @ 137.60, October feeders down 2.12 @ 137.70
Slow cash trade so far this week, beef drifting lower
Slow restaurant reopenings and questions about supplemental consumer income limiting retail beef demand
October lives made a solid bounce yesterday on some oversold technicals and closed above the 10-day moving average resistance
Prices have since fallen back below the 10-day moving average support
September feeders are currently making a bearish outside session, trapped between the 100-day moving average support and 10-day moving average resistance

October up 0.72 @ 60.62, December up 0.57 @ 59.25, February up 0.40 @ 64.02
Hog markets are entering a weak time of the year from a seasonal perspective
Steady uptrend in cash hogs and pork values
Exports to China and Mexico have been a major supportive factor
October futures are testing the 200-day moving average resistance level for the third session in a row
A close above the 200-day would be the first over the life of the October contract

Bryan Doherty