TFM Midday Update 9-9-2022

Provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc.


  • Dec corn up 9 @ 6.78
  • Corn is higher this morning as the general trade expectation is that the USDA will lower corn yields on Monday’s report, while a lower dollar is supporting most commodities
  • The new estimate for US ending corn stocks may end up being the lowest in ten years if yields and planted acres are lowered
  • The average estimate is a national corn yield of 172.4 bpa and a crop over 1 billion bushels smaller than last year’s
  • Yesterday’s report of ethanol production showed more active demand taking inventories down to 23.1 million barrels


  • Nov soybeans up 18 @ 14.03
  • Soybeans are higher after finding support yesterday from a test of the one-month low, while a lower dollar is encouraging higher prices among most commodities
  • Private exporters reported sales of 104,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to Taiwan during the 2022/2023 marketing year
  • Both meal and bean oil are higher, supporting crush values that are incentivizing to processors
  • Crude oil and palm oil are higher today as well supporting beans and bean oil
  • Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show a near record bean yield with the average trade guess at 51.5 bpa

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  • Dec wheat up 35 @ 8.64, Dec KC up 34 @ 9.27, & Dec MNPLS up 29 @ 9.28
  • Wheat is leading the grain complex higher this morning as planting conditions for HRW wheat are looking poor for this fall
  • The southwestern US Plains is forecast for drought over the next two weeks with higher-than-normal temperatures as well
  • There are still concerns that Russia will not extend the agreement allowing grain shipments through the Black Sea


  • Oct LC up 1.275 @ 145.675 & Sep FC up 0.925 @ 183.250
  • Both live and feeder cattle are higher as the dollar is lower
  • Cash trade in the South was mostly done at 141, steady with last week, while Northern dressed deals were marked around 226, about two dollars lower than last week
  • Choice cuts down 3.33 and select down 1.33
  • Cattle slaughter projected at 126K
  • CME Feeder Cattle Index for 9/8: up 1.17 @ 180.31


  • Oct hogs up 0.975 @ 93.050 & Oct pork cutout up 0.850 @ 102.950
  • Hogs are higher despite lower cash and a drop in the cutout of 0.71
  • October hogs hold a large discount to the index which will need to converge over the next month, and cash strength should soon return
  • National Direct Afternoon report fell 2.91
  • Hog slaughter projected at 476K
  • CME Lean Hog Index for 9/9: down 1.22 @ 100.26


Amanda Brill

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