TFM Morning Update 01-02-2026

CORN

The grain markets will resume trading at 8:30 AM following the New Year holiday. On Friday, March 2026 futures closed 1/4 cent lower to $4.40-1/4.
Export demand continues to provide underlying support. The USDA weekly corn export sales for the week ending December 18 was reported at 2.202 million metric tons, with Mexico leading the list of buyers. Total corn export sales for the current marketing year now stand at 1.960 billion bushels, up 31% from last year and running nearly 300 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA’s full-year target.
Ethanol production for the week ending December 26 averaged 1.120 million barrels per day, with corn use for ethanol production estimated at 109.8 million bushels. While still solid, that usage rate remains slightly below the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing-year target.

Soybean futures slid lower on New Year’s eve, with March futures shedding 14-3/4 cents to close at $10.47-1/2. Trading will resume at 8:30 AM this morning.
Traders see a number of hurdles for soybean prices heading into the new year following the 2025 performance. Even with increased buying interest from China, expectations for a large South American crop remain intact, with little evidence of adverse weather that could meaningfully threaten production.
In Wednesday morning’s export sales report, soybean sales for the week ended December 18 totaled 38.8 million bushels, the lowest weekly volume in more than a month. Shipments during the week were reported at 33.8 million bushels.

Wheat futures closed lower in the final session of 2025. Chicago wheat lost 3-3/4 cents to close at $5.07. Kansas City wheat shed 7-1/4 cents to close at $5.14-3/4. MIAX wheat slipped 4-1/2 cents, closing at $5.74.
Above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains continue to pressure KC wheat. While the warmth has reduced near-term winterkill risk, it also raises concerns that crops could be pushed out of dormancy, increasing vulnerability should colder conditions return.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its estimate for Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop to 27.8 million metric tons, up 0.7 million tons from its previous forecast. The increase was attributed to continued strong yields, with the harvest now nearly 93% complete. If realized, the crop would exceed the prior production record of 22.4 million metric tons.

Matthew Lucas