TFM Morning Update 01-03-2024

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning following significant losses yesterday that brought corn to a new contract low.
Yesterday’s export inspections of 22.4 mb of corn were within expectations but were lower than a year ago and way below the prior week’s exports.
Corn used for ethanol was higher than expectations at 455 mb in November and was up 1% from the previous year showing that domestic demand is still firm.
Yesterday, StoneX revised their estimate for Brazilian production lower at 124.6 mmt from 126 mmt, and the USDA will likely lower their estimate in the next WASDE report.

Soybeans are trading just slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s brutal start to the year which was caused by increased rainfall in the driest areas of Brazil.
Both soybean meal and oil are slightly lower today, but soybean oil managed a higher close yesterday thanks to gains in palm oil.
Soybean crushings were seen at 200 mb for November and were above expectations. They were up 5.5% from the same period last year, and crude and once-refined oil stocks were down 24.6%.
StoneX also revised their estimate for Brazilian soybean production lower at 152.8 mmt which was down from 161.9 mmt. This is far below the USDA’s last estimate of 161 mmt.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower today after yesterday’s losses caused the March futures to fall below the 100-day moving average which will now likely act as resistance.
Overall, wheat prices are well off their lows after a huge round of short covering that was near 80,000 contracts. The funds are still very short which could cause more short covering.
Winter wheat conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have improved with all three states showing large improvements in their good to excellent ratings. Oklahoma is in the best shape at 67%.
In Brazil, total area of wheat planted was increased in 2023, but dry weather may cause production to come in at just 8.14 mmt. The world wheat supply may actually fall in 23.24 after increasing for 4 years.

Amanda Brill