TFM Morning Update 01-03-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning following a move higher yesterday which brought March futures up to the 2-year downward trend line which it was not able to break. March futures now sit above all moving averages, however.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,450k tons with an average guess of 1,158k tons. This would compare to 1,721k last week and 367k a year ago.
US ethanol stocks rose by 2.4% to 23.639m bbl while analysts were expecting 23.308m bbl. Plant production was higher than expected at 1.111m b/d compared to the average guess of 1.082m.

Soybeans are trading lower to start the day with larger losses in the back months. March futures may have found some resistance at the 100-day moving average and are technically overbought. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 500k and 1,050k tons with an average guess of 783k tons. This would compare to 1,103k a week ago and 202k a year ago.
US soybean crushings came in at 210 million bushels for November which was above the average trade guess and was 5% higher than the same period last year. Crude oil production was 7.1% higher than the same period last year.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after lower trade yesterday as well. Yesterday, prices were affected by the rise in the US dollar, but this morning, wheat appears to be following the other grains lower.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 525k tons with an average guess of 388k tons. This would compare to 625k a week ago and 136k tons a year ago.
Russian wheat values have increased, with consultancy IKAR reporting that offers have increased by $3/mt in the past week to $237/mt. Russian wheat exports are expected to fall as production estimates shrink.

Amanda Brill