TFM Morning Update 01-05-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after posting a slight gain at yesterday’s close. For the week, March corn is on track to lose about 5 cents.
Ethanol production was higher than anticipated last week and has been firm which shows good domestic demand even while exports slow.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn in a wide range between 450k and 1,400k tons with an average of 863k. They will likely be on the light side considering the holidays.
Yesterday, the funds were estimated buyers of around 500 contracts of corn and currently hold a large net short position of about 177,000 contracts.

Soybeans are slightly lower today along with corn and continue to slide as traders focus on rain amounts in Brazil and ignore the likely reduction in total production due to early drought conditions.
March soybeans are on track to lose over 30 cents on the week with the majority of losses from Tuesday’s sell-off. Today, soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in soybeans are between 300k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 845k. The window for US exports remains open as Brazil looks to start harvest.
The USDA’s attaché in Brazil has lowered their estimate for the 23/24 crop to 158.5 mmt which is still far above private estimates which are closer to 150 mmt.

Wheat is beginning the day higher after solid gains posted yesterday. There have been rumors that China is looking to purchase US wheat that could have triggered the buying.
March Chicago wheat is on track for a loss of over 10 cents this week, but the contract managed to cross above the 100-day moving average this morning which is technically strong.
Estimates for Argentina’s wheat crop for 23/24 have increased by 2.7% to 15.1 mmt and could rise again due to good yields. The harvest is 84% complete with wheat in southeastern Buenos Aires left to collect.
Estimates for today’s export sales report are on the low side with a range between 150k and 450k tons and an average guess of 290k.

Amanda Brill