TFM Morning Update 01-09-2025

CORN

Corn is mixed to start the day with the front months trading slightly higher while new crop is fading. March futures have been unable to break resistance at $4.60 so far as funds may be paring down their large net long position ahead of tomorrow’s report.
Pre-report estimates for Friday’s WASDE see corn ending stocks falling slightly from the December estimate to 1,674 mb as yield estimates are expected to be lowered by 0.4 bpa to 182.7 bpa.
US ethanol stocks rose by 2.2% to 24.148m bbl while analysts were expecting 23.873m bbl. Plant production came in at 1.102, b/d compared to the average guess of 1.093.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and would be on track for a second consecutively lower day at this pace. Futures have been relatively rangebound despite improvements in South American weather. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
The bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt.
In Brazil, the state of Mato Grosso has begun its soybean harvest after dry weather caused planting delays at the beginning of the season. Mato Grosso increased its planted soybean acreage by 1.47% from last year this season.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with both Chicago and KC wheat slightly lower while Minneapolis trades higher. The dollar is trading higher again today and has been steadily increasing which has pressured futures.
Pre-report estimates for wheat in Friday’s report see ending stocks increasing slightly by 7 mb to 802 mb. There should be few changes to wheat in this report.
While wheat futures have struggled largely due to increases in the value of the dollar, globally, the wheat crop may see production issues. Estimates for Russian production have been reduced, while Europe, the Black Sea region, and the US have dealt with weather issues.

Amanda Brill