TFM Morning Update 01-10-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following yesterday’s push higher in prices. Market focus remains on Friday’s WASDE report.
The US exported 141 million bushels of corn in November, up 45.9% from November of 2022. Ethanol exports totaled 116 million gallons, up 45% from November of 2022.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report have Brazilian corn production between 122 mmt and 129 mmt which compares with their last guess of 129 mmt.
Estimates for Argentinian corn production are in a range between 53.5 mmt and 56 mmt with December’s estimate at 56 mmt. Argentina’s crop may get larger due to good weather.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning, yesterday’s close higher broke a streak of three consecutively lower closes.
There have been no US export flash sales reported for US soybeans since December 19th. Rumors circulated yesterday that China had bought 3 cargoes of Brazilian beans overnight.
Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report have Brazilian soybean production within a range of 152.7 mmt and 160.0 mmt which would be down from the last guess of 161.0 mmt. Some private analysts expect a number closer to 150 mmt.
Estimates for Argentina’s soybean production ahead of Friday’s WASDE report average 48.87 mmt, up from 48 mmt in the USDA’s December estimate.

Wheat is trading mostly lower this morning after yesterday’s gains and appears to be in a consolidating pattern while still holding the overall trend higher.
A second storm system is expected to track through the heart of the Midwest late this week and into the weekend providing additional moisture. The snow coverage will be welcome to winter wheat acres ahead of an Artic blast following this weekend.
Estimates for US winter wheat seedings ahead of the WASDE report are in a range between 34.5 and 39.4 with an average guess of 35.7. This compares to 36.7 from the USDA’s most recent estimate.
US exports of wheat in the month of November totaled 42 million bushels, up 3 million from October but in line with November of 2022.

Keegan Madigan