TFM Morning Update 01-12-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning as the market awaits the January WASDE report later today. March futures are 2 cents higher at $4.47-3/4. May futures are 2-1/4 cents higher at $4.56. December futures are 1-1/2 cents higher at $4.65-1/2.
Expectations heading into today’s WASDE call for a 2.1 bushel-per-acre cut to the U.S. corn yield, lowering it to 183.9 bu/acre. Even with that reduction, total production would still be estimated at 16.544 billion bushels.
With lower yields anticipated, the USDA is expected to make offsetting demand adjustments. Most attention is focused on the feed and residual category, where potential cuts could pull ending stocks down to around 1.982 billion bushels, from 2.029 billion in the December balance sheet.

Soybean futures are trading higher to start the day, testing resistance near $10.67. March futures are 3-1/2 cents higher at $10.66. May futures are 3-1/2 cents higher at $10.78. November futures are 4 cents higher at $10.75-3/4.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report suggest a modest 0.3 bushel-per-acre cut to the U.S. soybean yield, lowering it to 52.7 bpa. Ending stocks are expected to remain unchanged, while attention shifts to South America, where the USDA is expected to raise its Brazilian production estimate to 176.5 million metric tons, up from 175.0 million in the December report.
In Brazil, soybean harvest activity is beginning to gain momentum. Consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios reported Friday that farmers have harvested 0.53% of the country’s expected 2025/26 soybean area, compared with just 0.05% at the same point last year.

All three wheat classes are slightly higher this morning with March Chicago wheat 6-1/4 cents higher to $5.23-1/2, KC wheat up 8 cents to $5.38-1/4, and Minn wheat up 3-3/4 cents to $5.71-1/4.
The upcoming Supply and Demand report is expected to show U.S. wheat ending stocks slipping to 896 million bushels from 901 million last month, according to expectations ahead of the release from the USDA. All winter wheat seedings are projected at 32.4 million acres, down from 33.2 million acres a year ago.
Wheat had found some support from dryness concerns across the U.S. Plains, though many traders cautioned it remains too early in the season for those conditions to materially impact winter wheat yields, with crop conditions still viewed as relatively good across the region.

Matthew Lucas