TFM Morning Update 01-13-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning as the market continues to digest the January WASDE data. March futures are 2-3/4 cents lower at $4.18-3/4. May futures are 2-1/2 cents lower at $4.28. December futures are 4 cents lower at $4.47-1/2.
The market continues to digest the data from yesterday’s January WASDE report. USDA raised the corn yield by 0.5 bushels per acre to 186.5 bu/acre and increased harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres, pushing projected U.S. corn production above 17 billion bushels. The yield increase came as a surprise, as the market had been positioned for a reduction rather than an upward revision.
Despite some offsetting demand adjustments, USDA raised U.S. corn carryout for the 2025/26 marketing year to 2.227 billion bushels—nearly 250 million bushels above market expectations. The sharply larger projected will continue to weigh heavily on the market.

Soybean futures are trading lower to start the day, testing technical support. March futures are 6-3/4 cents lower at $10.42-1/2. May futures are 6-1/2 cents lower at $10.55-1/4. November futures are 5 cents lower at $10.62.
Yesterday’s USDA report was bearish on nearly every front. Soybean yields were left unchanged at 53.0 bushels per acre, well above the 2024/25 yield of 50.7 bpa, while ending stocks were increased to 350 million bushels—up 60 million from the previous estimate.
The report also raised Brazilian soybean production to 178 million metric tons from 175 million last month, a level that would mark a record crop.

The wheat complex has started the day mixed with March Chicago wheat 2 cents lower to $5.09-1/4, KC wheat down 4 cents to $5.22-3/4, and Minn wheat up 3-3/4 cents to $5.69-1/2.
Yesterday’s WASDE report from the USDA estimated U.S. 2025/26 wheat carryout at 926 million bushels, up 25 million from last month and above market expectations, largely reflecting lower feed usage.
On the global side, 2025/26 ending stocks were pegged at 278.3 million metric tons, up 3.4 million from December. Production was also raised, with Argentina up 3.5 million metric tons to 27.5 million and Russia increased by 2.0 million to 89.5 million metric tons.

Matthew Lucas