TFM Morning Update 01-18-2024


  • Corn is trading slightly higher after selling intensified yesterday causing the March contract to make a new low at $4.40 which appears to be a level of support.
  • Open interest increased by 25,000 contracts which indicates that non-commercials are adding to their already large net short position.
  • Ethanol production is expected to be lower than last week at 1.054 million barrels per day with the stockpile expected to rise to 24.577 m bbl compared to 24.371 a week ago.
  • It is estimated that funds were sellers of approximately 2,000 contracts of corn yesterday which would leave them with a net short position of around 268,000 contracts.


  • Soybeans are trading higher today after a sharp selloff yesterday that was triggered by poor economic data out of China that could impact US export demand.
  • Despite the struggling Chinese economy, estimates for Brazilian soybean production continue to slip which should be friendly to prices. Most analysts are predicting 150 mmt or lower for production, but there have been guesses as low as 135 mmt. The USDA is still at 157 mmt.
  • Palm oil prices are expected to increase by 4% this year due to improving biodiesel demand and unchanging output. Malaysian output is seen at 18.75 million tons while Indonesia is seen at 48.87 mln tons.
  • Yesterday, non-commercials sold an estimated 7,500 contracts of soybeans, and open interest is 41,000 contracts higher than a year ago which points to fund selling.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minneapolis higher. The recent cold snap could have done some damage to winter wheat and could be supportive to prices.
  • The Brazilian wheat crop for 23/24 is now seen at 8.25 mmt compared to 8.59 mmt in last months estimate. Expected imports have risen as well to 7.05 mmt from 6.37 mmt.
  • There is currently talk of 2 Chinese vessels at US Gulf terminals set to load SRW wheat. Presumably these would be the first loadings of the wheat purchased back in early December.
  • FranceAgriMer has cut their estimate of 23/24 French wheat exports due to significantly lower demand from China. China has been purchasing the large majority of its wheat from Russia.


Amanda Brill

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