TFM Morning Update 01-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after rebounding yesterday off of new contract lows at $4.36-3/4 in the March contract.
The House and Senate both passed bills yesterday to avoid a government shutdown, and this is likely giving support to both commodity and equity markets.
Weather for Argentina has turned slightly drier in the near term forecast, and 93% of their crop is reportedly planted compared to 85% last week.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in corn are between 500k and 1,200k tons with an average guess of 747k tons. Flash sales have been sparse and only to Mexico, so the number will likely be on the softer side.

Soybeans are higher for the second consecutive day as they attempt to rebound from extremely oversold conditions. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.
Argentina’s soy crop has benefitted from very good weather which has had analysts increasing their production estimates, but the 10-day forecast is dry and the crop could get stressed.
Agroconsult is expecting Chinese imports of soy to decline in 23/24 as they have already purchased a large stockpile, and less bean meal is being used for feed.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in soybeans see a range between 250k and 900k tons with an average guess of 528k tons, but with no flash sales to speak of, that number will likely be on the low end of estimates.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. There was a decline in the US Dollar overnight which is typically supportive to wheat.
Soft wheat production estimates in the EU for 24/25 have been revised lower to 122.7 mmt mainly due to poor weather conditions.
FranceAgriMer has cut their estimate of 23/24 French wheat exports due to significantly lower demand from China. China has been purchasing the large majority of its wheat from Russia.
Estimates for wheat in today’s export sales report are expected to be low with a range between 150k and 500k tons. Export demand could start to improve with prices so low in the US.

Amanda Brill