TFM Morning Update 01-21-2025

CORN

  • Corn is mixed to start the day with gains in the front months while new crop contracts are slightly lower. The Brazilian soybean harvest is behind schedule which would in turn put the safrinha corn sowing behind as well.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released its new estimates for the 24/25 corn crop with 6.6 million hectares of corn planted which was below last year’s 7.9m. 95.1% of the crop is reportedly planted.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of January 14. They bought 39,088 contracts which left them with a net long position of 292,434 contracts. Since then, they are estimated to have bought back 22,500 contracts.

SOYBEANS

  • Soybeans are trading sharply higher this morning after President Trump issued 200 executive orders yesterday but did not implement any new tariffs as trade expected. Soybean meal is leading the market higher while soybean oil is slightly lower.
  • Estimates for Brazilian soybean production has been increased by Agroconsult to 172.4 mmt which would be an 11% increase from last season. The issue now is coming from continued rains that are delaying harvest.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 63,445 contracts which left them with a net long position of 34,833 contracts. Funds are nowhere near record long and have the ability to continue buying if weather remains a concern.

WHEAT

  • Wheat is higher to start the day with Chicago wheat leading the way. The fact that new tariffs were not implemented yesterday and that the US dollar is trading lower are both bullish to the wheat market.
  • Cofco, China’s largest state-run crop trader has had to resell two cargoes of imported wheat due to Beijing extending curbs of foreign purchases in order to improve the domestic industry. The Australian wheat was resold to Indonesia and Thailand.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 5,756 contracts leaving them net short 94,393 contracts. They were sellers of 5,748 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 37,606 contracts.

Author

Amanda Brill

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