TFM Morning Update 01-22-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after prices began to rebound on Thursday and Friday of last week. Last week’s stronger export sales were supportive.
In Brazil, spot corn prices have been in a downward trend with Argentina’s wet forecast pointing to improved production, and Brazil seeing improvements in its forecast as well.
Last week, China released import data that showed 2023 imports of corn at 27.1 mmt. Total imports were for December were 4.95 mmt and the largest month in Chinese history.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of corn by 29,819 contracts which increased their net short position to 260,542 contracts as of Jan 16.

Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning with pressure from soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher. Soybean meal hasn’t fallen this low since July of 2022.
Last week’s strong export sales report and unexpected flash sale to China both added support to the market, but trade appears to be fixated on the upcoming South American harvest.
In 2023, Chinese imports of soybean from Brazil rose by 29% while imports from the US fell by 13%. Shipments from Brazil totaled 69.95 mmt as China opted for their cheaper soybeans.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 45,549 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 76,797 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with the rest of the grain complex after some turnaround last week. Export sales were better than expected for wheat.
Shipments of European wheat are avoiding the Suez Canal to avoid the fighting by Houthi rebels and are using alternative routes to reach Asia and Africa.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East over the weekend could result in higher crude oil which would eventually raise the prices of other commodities.
Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 10,587 contracts of wheat which increased their net short position to 68,575 contracts.

Amanda Brill