TFM Morning Update 01-23-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and would be on track for a fourth consecutively higher close as prices rebound from oversold conditions.
Yesterday’s export inspections report was within trade expectations at 713k tons, but that was below last week’s 946k tons and also lower than the previous year at this time.
Brazil’s first crop corn harvest is now 8.4% complete as of January 19 which compares to 1.5% a year ago and the 5-year average of 5.8%.
Yesterday, the funds were estimated to have bought back 500 contracts of corn, but still hold a very large net short position, and open interest has risen significantly.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a strong close yesterday. Soybean meal has been trending lower but is up today, while soybean oil is slightly lower along with crude oil.
Brazil’s soy harvest for 23/24 is 6% complete which compares to 2.3% last week and 1.8% a year ago. The areas that suffered from drought have been getting harvested first.
China is continuing its plans to expand oilseed production in the country by planting GMO soybeans and corn in an effort to reduce reliance on other countries for imports.
Yesterday’s export inspections were a little soft at 1,161k tons which was down 9.2% from the previous week and down 36.9% from a year ago.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning, and March Chicago wheat would be on track for a fifth consecutive higher close despite slow export sales.
Australia’s weather has improved lately, and its wheat crop is now estimated as much as 5 mmt higher than previous estimates.
Yesterday’s export sales were soft again at 314k tons but were slightly higher than last week. A good portion of that wheat is bound for China which is encouraging.
Yesterday, funds were estimated to have bought back 2,000 contracts of wheat which would have reduced their net short position slightly. Funds have been slowly unraveling their short position over the past few weeks.

Amanda Brill