TFM Morning Update 01-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after breaking its five-day streak of consecutive gains yesterday with a slightly lower close.
Yesterday’s export sales were within expectations but were slightly disappointing given how competitive the US is globally right now, but commitments are still running above pace.
Argentina had around a week’s worth of drier weather recently, but overall the growing season has been very favorable, and now the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has revised its production higher to 56.5 mmt from 55 mmt.
Sales of ethanol within Brazil have risen significantly this month as they are reportedly running out of storage due to a bumper crop. Total ethanol sales have risen by 44% year over year.

Soybeans are trading lower again this morning following yesterday’s poor close with both soybean meal and oil lower as the outlook for Argentina improves.
The 8 to 10-day forecast in Argentina is now projecting more rain, and improvements in Argentine weather are typically bearish for US soybean meal prices as the country is the top exporter of meal.
The value of soybean meal and oil have fallen at a slightly more rapid pace than soybeans recently causing crush margins to narrow. This may cause processors to crush fewer bushels.
Shipments down the Mississippi River have fallen significantly during the week ending Jan 20 which has caused rates to decline. Soybean shipments were down 52% week over week.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but March Chicago wheat is still above its 100-day moving average and is significantly off its contract lows.
Yesterday’s export sales were nothing to get excited about, but 3 mb of wheat were shipped to China, and 28 mb of wheat have been shipped so far with 60 mb more to go.
While Australia has received beneficial rains that have saved a portion of their crop, the weather pattern there has turned stormy with a tropical cyclone damaging the Queensland area.
Cheap Russian wheat prices remain the largest force of downward pressure for global wheat prices. Their crop has appeared to grow each year and they essentially set the price for the rest of the world.

Amanda Brill