TFM Morning Update 01-26-2026

CORN

Corn futures started the week mixed, with March futures down 1 cent at $4.29-1/2, while December corn futures are trading 1/4 cent higher at $4.55-1/2.
The Rosario Grain Exchange reported a decline in Argentina’s corn crop condition ratings, as hot and dry weather in southern growing areas has begun to limit crop potential. Good-to-excellent ratings fell 12 points to 52%.
While dryness remains a concern, conditions are still notably better than last year, when just 40% of the crop was rated good to excellent. Despite the recent deterioration, the exchange has raised its corn production forecast to 62 million metric tons for the current growing season.

Soybean futures started the Monday session higher, with March futures up 4-3/4 cents at $10.72-1/2. New-crop November 2026 soybean futures are trading 4 cents higher at $10.86.
Talks last week between U.S. and China officials raised optimism that China could step up purchases of U.S. soybeans. Scott Bessent said he held “positive” discussions with He Lifeng, reinforcing expectations for improved trade engagement.
China stepped up soybean purchases from the United States following the trade truce reached in October but has now fulfilled its commitment to buy 12 million metric tons. Should China continue sourcing U.S. soybeans beyond that level, the likelihood of a year-over-year drawdown in U.S. soybean inventories would increase.

The wheat complex started the week higher across the board. Chicago wheat futures are up 2-1/2 cents at $5.32, Kansas City wheat futures are higher by 1-1/2 cents at $5.42-1/4, and MIAX spring wheat futures are up 1-3/4 cents at $5.76-3/4.
Iraq is reportedly moving to sell surplus wheat from government reserves, approving sales totaling 500,000 metric tons at prices near $318 per metric ton. The move comes ahead of Iraq’s domestic wheat harvest, which is expected to begin in April and produce roughly 4 million metric tons. Current reserve holdings are also estimated at around 4 million metric tons.
LSEG Commodities Research raised its estimate for Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat production by 9% to 27.1 million metric tons, citing better-than-expected late-season weather and strong soil moisture conditions. For comparison, USDA increased its Argentine wheat estimate by 3.5 million metric tons to 27.5 million in the January WASDE report.

Matthew Lucas