TFM Morning Update 01-28-2026

CORN

Corn futures have started the day modestly higher, drawing support from spillover strength in the soybean market. March corn futures are up 3 cents at $4.29-1/2, while December corn futures are 2 cents higher at $4.56-1/4.
During a visit to Iowa yesterday afternoon, Donald Trump reiterated his support for year-round E15. The recent failure to pass year-round E15 has frustrated U.S. corn farmers and added pressure to corn markets. Trump said he has promised to back year-round E15 and is relying on Speaker Mike Johnson to help secure a deal that works for consumers, farmers, and refiners, adding that he would sign the legislation as soon as it reaches his desk.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his forecast for Argentine corn production by 2 million metric tons to 54 million, though that remains above the USDA estimate of 53 million. He left his Brazilian corn production outlook unchanged at 137 million metric tons, still well above USDA’s current projection of 131 million.

Soybean futures are trading higher this morning as the market breaks above the 200-day moving average near $10.70 and begins to price in weather-related risk premium tied to adverse conditions in Argentina. March soybeans are up 10-1/4 cents at $10.77-1/2, while November soybeans are higher by 7-1/2 cents at $10.90-1/4.
Argentina’s key agricultural regions are in urgent need of rainfall after recent temperatures surged to near 104°F, with little meaningful relief expected until February. In response, soybean futures have begun to price in additional weather-related risk premium.
AgRural estimates the Brazilian soybean harvest was 4.9% complete as of January 22, up from 2% the previous week and ahead of the 3.9% pace seen a year ago. Alongside the faster harvest progress, production estimates were raised to 181 million metric tons from a prior forecast of 180.4 million.

The wheat complex is trading higher across the board this morning. March Chicago wheat futures are up 7-1/2 cents at $5.30-3/4, Kansas City wheat futures are higher by 5-1/4 cents at $5.38, and MIAX spring wheat futures are up 3-1/2 cents at $5.75-1/4.
Traders are closely monitoring cold weather across key wheat-growing regions in both the U.S. and Russia.
It will likely take several weeks before the full extent of any damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop from the recent frigid temperatures becomes clear. While potential crop injury could prove supportive for prices, the same winter storm also delivered precipitation across much of the central U.S. That moisture may help ease drought conditions in the southeastern Plains and southern Midwest, potentially capping upside follow-through.

Matthew Lucas