TFM Morning Update 01-29-2026

CORN

Corn futures have continued to grind higher, with March futures up 2-1/2 cents at $4.32-1/2. December futures are trading 1-1/4 cents higher at $4.59.
Weekly ethanol production dropped to 327.5 million gallons for the week ending Jan 23. Production was likely limited by winter weather impacts during the week. A total of 110 mb of corn was used for production in the week, slightly ahead of the USDA target pace.
USDA is set to release weekly export sales data later this morning, with expectations calling for total new sales between 1.0 and 2.5 million metric tons for the week ending January 22. The market is already aware of five reported sales during that window totaling 763,000 metric tons, providing a solid baseline ahead of the report.

Soybean futures have pushed higher again this morning, with March futures up 6-1/4 cents at $10.81-1/4. November soybean futures are trading 5-1/4 cents higher at $10.95-1/4.
Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar has continued to provide underlying support to the soybean market, occurring alongside strength in the Brazilian real. Together, those currency moves have improved the relative competitiveness of U.S. soybeans. However, that advantage has yet to translate into a meaningful pickup in export demand.
South American weather likely added support to soybeans today, as southern Brazil remains on the dry side, raising concerns about potential crop stress. Argentina is also contending with dry conditions, with key growing areas missing recent spotty showers. As a result, soil moisture levels and crop condition ratings have slipped and are expected to continue trending lower in the near term.

The wheat complex has started the day higher across the board. March Chicago wheat futures are up 4-1/2 cents at $5.40-1/2, Kansas City wheat futures are higher by 3 cents at $5.45-1/4, and MIAX spring wheat futures are up 4-3/4 cents at $5.78-3/4.
It will likely take several weeks before the full extent of any damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop from the recent frigid temperatures becomes clear. While potential crop injury could prove supportive for prices, the same winter storm also delivered precipitation across much of the central U.S. That moisture may help ease drought conditions in the southeastern Plains and southern Midwest, potentially capping upside follow-through.
SovEcon is reported to have raised its estimate for Russian wheat exports by 1.1 million metric tons to 45.7 million, compared with the USDA forecast of 44.0 million. Looking ahead, SovEcon projects Russia’s 2026/27 wheat production at 83.8 million metric tons, with exports seen at 39.6 million. If realized, that production figure would represent a decline from its 2025/26 estimate of 88.8 million metric tons. For reference, official Rosstat data place Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest at 91.4 million metric tons.

Matthew Lucas