TFM Morning Update 01-30-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday, the March contract reached its highest level since May 2024. Prices have begun to back off now that they are facing resistance at the 5-dollar mark.
In Brazil, safrinha corn planting is falling behind schedule, with only 1% planted compared to the 10% average. Forecasts call for rain next week, further tightening the planting window. Some Brazilian farmers are considering switching from corn to sorghum as a result.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 850k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,275k tons. This would compare with 1,670k last week and 1,351k a year ago.

Soybean futures are trading lower this morning giving back a portion of yesterday’s gains. As in corn, soybeans are nearing resistance, and funds may be taking profits on short positions. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Export demand has softened, with last week’s Gulf soybean loadings hitting their lowest level since mid-September. The Lunar New Year holiday in China and expectations for cheaper Brazilian supplies in the coming weeks may be contributing to the slowdown.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 450k and 1,700k tons with an average guess of 1,150k. This would compare to 1,493k last week and 166k the previous year.

Wheat futures are mixed to start the day with Chicago trading slightly lower while KC and Minneapolis are higher. Prices rallied higher yesterday on technical short covering and poor global weather.
Global crop concerns continue to rise as Western Europe is too wet and the Black Sea and Ukraine too dry. France’s wet weather is hurting crop ratings and dimming production prospects. Russia’s wheat crop could fall below 85 MMT.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 150k and 500k tons with an average guess of 300k. This would compare to last week’s 215k and 338k the previous year.

Amanda Brill