TFM Morning Update 01-30-2026

CORN

Corn futures traded lower this morning as the market continued to consolidate within a narrow range, with trade largely confined between $4.27 and $4.31. March corn futures are down 2-1/2 cents at $4.28-1/4, while December corn futures are off 2-1/4 cents at $4.56-3/4.
USDA announced weekly export sales Thursday morning. For the week ending January 22, new corn sales for the current marketing year totaled 1.649 million metric tons, landing toward the lower end of trade expectations and well below last week’s volume. Despite the softer weekly figure, cumulative corn export sales remain at a record pace, running 18% ahead of last year.
Despite the recent rally in corn futures, the National Corn Index has moved lower over the past several sessions. The index, which reflects changes in cash prices and basis levels, has been pressured by ample supplies and continued producer selling, limiting upside in the cash market.

Soybean futures are modestly lower this morning as the market pulls back from its recent tests of resistance near $10.83 over the past two sessions. March soybean futures are down 6-1/2 cents at $10.65-3/4, while November soybean futures are off 6 cents at $10.83-3/4..
Yesterday’s export sales report for soybeans came in middle of the road, with net sales totaling 30.1 mb. That figure fell within trade expectations but toward the lower end of the reported range. Top buyers on the week included China, unknown destinations, and Egypt. Meanwhile, last week’s export shipments reached 46.6 mb, running ahead of the weekly pace needed to meet USDA projections.
Forecasts continue to call for hot and dry conditions across key corn-growing regions in Argentina. While the country had been on track for a record crop, recent weather stress has begun to erode production expectations as crop ratings have slipped. Some potentially beneficial rainfall is forecast to arrive in early February, which could help stabilize yield prospects if realized.

Wheat futures are mixed to mostly lower to start the session. March Chicago wheat futures are up 1/2 cent at $5.42, Kansas City wheat futures are down 1/2 cent at $5.46-1/2, and MIAX spring wheat futures are lower by 3 cents at $5.78-1/2.
It will likely take several weeks before the full extent of any damage to the U.S. winter wheat crop from the recent frigid temperatures becomes clear.
China has auctioned 564,000 metric tons of wheat so far in January, with domestic prices continuing to trend higher. In response, authorities are set to increase weekly auction volumes to 300,000 metric tons beginning next week. Wheat prices had been depressed following the 2025 harvest, prompting the Chinese government to step in and purchase wheat for the first time since 2020. The move marks a notable reversal in China’s domestic wheat balance.

Matthew Lucas